These responses by Matt Cole are incredibly misleading. Pay attention. I made a point that the nearly $40 billion of common equity that Strategy raised since 2024 underperformed bitcoin, which it did. He said inaccurate. I showed the analysis he described. Then he said "of course it did" (note there was a longer reply in his post than what I snipped in the first pic, I'll link it below for context). The equity raised since the beginning of 2024 represents >90% of all common equity ever raised. Sell the equity, buy bitcoin. The equity should and will trade at a discount to NAV due to the incremental risk. If you do not understand this, you probably shouldn't be investing in stocks. The people buying these stocks are being gaslit to believe the stocks *should* trade at a premium when that is non-sensical to risk. You're supposed to get paid for taking incremental risk. It's called a risk premium. The risk literally is priced with a discount. It is not discounted, it is the opposite direction. The stocks should and will trade below NAV because of the incremental risk and because you can buy the underlying asset at lower carrying cost. When bitcoin rises and the further out of the money the senior claims become, the closer the stock should trade to NAV and you would outperform bitcoin for incremental risk. When bitcoin declines, there becomes less coverage and the discount to NAV will widen. All bets off if the company dilutes you or takes on more leverage which represents more risk. Saying treasury companies should outperform in bull markets and underperform in bear markets because "that's how positive beta works" is a misnomer that is ignoring the critical part about the premium embedded in the stocks. The stocks will re-rate to trade below NAV, then they probably should outperform in bull markets and underperform in bear markets while always trading at a discount to NAV, which is what I've been talking about. Ignoring the fact that incremental risk (i.e. leveraged bitcoin companies in stock wrappers) trades at a premium is the problem. If you figure this out, then you will do exactly what the companies are doing. Selling the common equity and buying bitcoin. My reply: x.com/parkeralewis/status/20… Matt's second reply: x.com/ColeMacro/status/20665…

Looking back in 2025, bitcoin had three bearish divergences: higher highs in price, lower highs in RSI. Stronger on the surface than underneath.

If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.