Here is my pitch to
$RKLB $ASTS $PL $RDW $BKSY investors:
We are about to enter the Great Canadian Space Procurement Cycle and you are not long the #1 beneficiary.
$MDA
Today you're paying roughly:
~40x EV/2029 sales for
$RKLB
~11x EV/2029 sales for
$ASTS
~18x EV/2029 sales for
$PL
~6x EV/2029 sales for
$BKSY
~5x EV/2029 for
$RDW
and ~3.3x EV/2029 for
$MDA
Taking the midpoint of those multiples gets you to around $85 or ~90% upside (keep in mind
$MDA is the only consistently profitable one).
The crazy part is that these revenues are mainly existing contracts and backlog, while nothing of the real super cycle growth is taken into account. Analysts are projecting ~$1.85 billion of revenue in 2029 for
$MDA ($MDA said they are ending 2026 at ~1.3 billion).
None of the estimate stake into account:
- ESCP-P (Polar): Canada’s Arctic SATCOM project. A >$5 billion cad program to be awarded to
$MDA and
$TSAT over the next few months (confirmed by
$TSAT CEO, reiterated by
$MDA CEO, and validated by Brigadier General Brendan Cook at Space Canada Horizon on May 20).
- DESSP: Canada’s Defence Enhanced Surveillance from Space project: Another >$5 billion cad program meant to replace/improve RADARSAT.
$MDA is Canada’s RADARSAT/SAR heritage prime and RCAF said RADARSAT capacity is not enough for future military needs and need DESSP.
- RADARSAT replenishment/next-gen SAR: Canadian Space Agency said more is coming soon on the RCM replenishment satellite. This is a $1.012 billion cad program over 15 years.
- D2D neutral-networks:
$MDA said it is developing a new Class M satellite platform, bigger and more powerful, specifically to address D2D.
$MDA CEO mentioned during SATCOM show that MNOs, towercos, governments, etc. approaching
$MDA looking for sovereign solutions.
- MSS spectrum access: In December,
$MDA already applied for a broad set of Canadian bands, including L-band, S-band/2 GHz, cellular bands, and Ka/Q/V.
- Lunar rover expansion/surface robotics: CSA said Canada is pivoting toward lunar surface mobility and logistics, with potential fleets of Canadian rovers, cargo unloading, infrastructure assembly and surface robotics using Canadaarm.
$MDA is currently one of 3 companies contracted by CSA for the Lunar Utility Vehicle concept work. On May 20, CSA mentioned new contract (follow on) awards coming soon.
- Sapphire replacement/space domain awareness: RFI already completed with RFP expected later this year for an optical system to replace Sapphire.
$MDA was the previous mission prime here.
- MDA MIDNIGHT: space control defence platform for on orbit inspection, threat detection, satellite refuelling, cooperative capture/release and de-orbiting, etc. They're mainly bodyguard sats that protect high value space assets.
- ESA contract access: Canada committed $528.5 million to ESA programmes. This gives Canadian companies room to bid into high value European space work. CSA even assisting Canadian cos in writing RFPs to help win European awards.
- Product roadmap: At Horizons,
$MDA discussed it is developing a bigger, flatter, more powerful satellite for D2D that is designed to fit into Falcon 9 fairing. They also mentioned they are working on V2 of their current Aurora satellites and moving more towards end to end constellation infrastructure.
On top of that, you have the Royal Canadian Air Force confirming Canada has 9 major military space projects representing ~$26 billion of committed government investment over 20 years, and that they have been told to accelerate it and move the majority of that spend "left". 70% of that amount needs to be spent in Canada!
You are looking at tens of billions of potential Canadian space procurement that is not being modelled by analysts.
Management already said the company has a ~$40 billion pipeline, including ~$10 billion of down selected opportunities, on top of its existing ~$3.7 billion backlog. And this excludes any future commercial constellation wins or international M&A which management said they are actively looking at doing in US, Europe, and the UK.
Every Canadian government official, CSA speaker, military commander and industry leader is saying the same thing: Space sovereignty is now a national priority. You have a massive Canada put on arguably the best positioned space co in the industry -
$MDA.
🇨🇦🚀