Every hyped IPO tends to run the same script. SpaceX probably won't be the exception.
The lifecycle:
1. IPO excitement, early buyers push it up
2. Retail buys the top, FOMO and euphoria
3. Retail sells the bottom, panic and capitulation
4. Accumulation, 1-2 boring years, strong hands build
5. Institutions enter after the breakout
6. Re-rating, new highs
The engine underneath: a tiny float pops on hype, then lockups expire and supply floods. That's usually where the round trip from retail to institutions happens.
It's not a law, plenty of IPOs fall and never get up. but if SpaceX rhymes, the correction is the setup, not the story.
Watch the lockup, not the launch. (OpenAI and Anthropic are next.)