Joined November 2008
- Tweets 12,846
- Following 4,379
- Followers 16,522
- Likes 10,447
1,630 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Jun 2
NEW: DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi
npr.org/2026/06/02/nx-s1-584…
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“There is also Jay-Z, the businessman musician, who is an adviser [to Kalshi] and an investor…His ties to Kalshi haven’t been previously reported.”
Kalshi's Luana Lopes Lara is already a billionaire at 30. From finding inspiration in celebrity gossip to seeking Jay-Z's advice, she's quietly leading the charge at one of the fastest-growing companies in prediction markets bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Bobby Allyn retweeted
Jun 11
Chalemet’s Kalshi ad getting no love
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Jun 11
Spencer Pratt was part of this very online feedback loop where he kept going viral here, his odds were always bullish on prediction markets and traders were obsessed with him, so I got access to Kalshi API data and ran the numbers.
On the biggest Kalshi market over who would eventually become mayor of LA, traders bet $60M for and against Pratt.
$10M of that was thrown away betting he’d advance to runoff and win.
$50M of that were bets that he would never be mayor.
Kalshi pocketed $547k in fees just on this market’s Pratt trading
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Jun 11
And it’s clear that Pratt’s candidacy single-handedly supercharged the market, since $60M out of $82M of total trades were related to Pratt. Kind of incredible kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorla…
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Jun 11
And in light of Kalshi paid affiliates, some of them spreading election misinfo to singal-boost the race, going hard to promote the market, knowing there’s a giant pile of fee cash waiting on the other side of this.
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Jun 9
Late to this but my colleagues at Throughline did a great job on this episode breaking down the long and twisted history of prediction markets, from late 19th century stigmatized experiment to Iowa academic exercise to a killed Pentagon project, to Kalshi and Polymarket open.spotify.com/episode/0Bd…
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Bobby Allyn retweeted
Jun 9
Why have Kalshi and Polymarket been paying election deniers like this J6er to post about the Los Angeles mayoral race and call its legitimacy into question?
(notice the "Paid Partnership" badge on the lower left)
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Jun 9
NEW with @judejoffeblock: An inside look at Kalshi and Polymarket's crack down on paid influencers claiming election fraud in California.
Before the spreaders of election falsehoods were targeted, Kalshi was mostly hands-off, but did once cut ties with an affiliate creator who celebrated the death of Charlie Kirk.
Across Kalshi and Polymarket, some creators are getting paid $500 per post to boost market odds. The vetting is minimal and, until recently, content rules lax. But now, they're enforcing guardrails around pushing bogus election theories
npr.org/2026/06/07/nx-s1-584…
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Jun 8
NEW: Kalshi now says it prohibits paid creators from calling into question the integrity or accuracy of an election, legal ruling or official determination in connection with an election.
It follows Kalshi cracking down on paid affiliates who were spreading misinformation about California's election.
Polymarket has not responded to questions about whether it is acting on paid affiliates amplifying election misinfo, nor if it has any rules against it.
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Jun 8
NEW: Polymarket now says any affiliate post denying an election result would violate their terms of service stipulating that creators do not spread false and misleading information.
The company says it has asked that posts from two of its paid affiliates lose its sponsorship.
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Jun 8
NPR lost a lot of talented journalists in its latest round of layoffs/buyouts, including Maria, who is great. Hire her!!
Jun 8
Well, NPR has decided to eliminate my role as financial correspondent. I've been laid off, along with several fantastic colleagues.
I spent the past two years at NPR covering Wall Street, the economy, and financial and corporate power — and how it affects all of us. It’s a crucial time for this coverage, and I’m incredibly proud of my work for NPR.
I looked beyond the daily numbers of “the markets” and “the economy” to cover the people and companies shaping them, and their real-world impact — from healthcare consolidation to private credit, olive oil tariffs to crony capitalism. I broke news, brought NPR ambitious and exclusive enterprise reporting, and provided analysis across NPR’s daily broadcast shows and podcasts.
I’m grateful to have spent two years learning audio storytelling, podcasting, and live broadcasting — and how fun they are! — from some wonderful colleagues and friends. I’ll miss them, and I’ll continue to be inspired by their commitment to journalism as a public service.
I’m looking forward to figuring out what’s next, and can be reached at maria.aspan@gmail.com.
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Bobby Allyn retweeted
NEW: @Polymarket is spending big money to quietly pay some of the biggest stars on this platform, like @nickshirleyy, @Riley_Gaines_, @dom_lucre, @alx and its coming out of an exec's personal PayPal account.
POLITICO obtained payment records that show @MatthewModabber sent out over $2.5 million to over 800 people in 14 months, and we verified the identities of about two dozen content creators who received money. Most never disclosed the payments. W/ @mayakauf, @Jtblaeser and @declanharty
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Jun 4
George Santos called me after my story revealing federal investigations into his suspected market manipulation on Kalshi.
And he said: "This story is going to get you a gun in your face."
Then he lied about it.
npr.org/2026/06/04/nx-s1-584…
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Jun 3
This is cool: A dev, using Kalshi’s public API, built an insider trading detector which scans for anomalous trades in “politically-sensitive prediction markets with a live dashboard” “(because George Santos)”
dev.to/lweiss01/i-built-a-pr…
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Jun 3
Truly wasn’t expecting Polymarket fallout from the Kalshi insider trading scandal.
New: As @GeorgeSantos was allegedly betting against his own SOTU attendance, he was also collecting a paycheck from Polymarket to promote their brand.
A Polymarket rep tells AP they've cut ties with Santos in response to the insider trading probe.
apnews.com/article/george-sa…
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Bobby Allyn retweeted
I may have lost $186 to George Santos, but I gained a story that’ll last a lifetime
Feb 24
I don’t think I can ever live down being duped and rugpulled by George Santos
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Bobby Allyn retweeted
Ex Rep Santos, once known for paid Cameo hits, now frequents Kalshi
DoJ now investigating latest allegations agst Santos involving insider trading
Scoop from @BobbyAllyn
Jun 2
NEW: DOJ is investigating former congressman George Santos for insider trading on Kalshi
npr.org/2026/06/02/nx-s1-584…
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Jun 1
Worth considering that the who will advance to the runoff market doesn't have a lot of liquidity (382k. compare that to Kalshi bets on who will be next LA mayor, which is a $35M market) Markets with low liquidity tend to be the least predictive and the most susceptible to manipulation
May 31
BREAKING: Spencer Pratt’s odds to advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election have risen to 80%
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May 31
The anti-weaponization payout fund “offers money to an indeterminate group of people, who never threatened or commenced any kind of legal action," said @Adam_Zimmerman. "Unlike anything we've seen in the history of the republic."
npr.org/2026/05/30/nx-s1-583…
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