Exact same thoughts, the prices newer/modern cards have reached is not sustainable with how high the POP count is on them, it is simply what we saw with base cards of sports cards back in 2020, with cards like Giannis base PSA10 reaching 6k, it’s around $500 right now. Other more extreme examples like Luka base and Zion base
Old cards will survive but will still correct, majority of these modern high pop count will unfortunately experience the same fate as sports card did previously
How I view the Pokemon market currently:
Dumb money is fomoing into high supply modern cards (a lot of crypto bros), alongside paying ridiculous premiums for PSA 10s of these cards.
The insane premium on PSA 10 modern cards won't last. The supply is absurdly high. These are not scarce assets and there will almost certainly be a crash, as people are forced to sell their cardboard due to bad economic conditions.
Unemployed scalpers will be forced to undercut each other some time later this year.
The market will be flooded with modern as the business cycle turns. Yes, Pokemon will not defy the business cycle.
The majority of modern graded cards will never return to their highs and will be largely forgotten about over time, as people chase new sets.
People will still continue to buy modern sets because the content machine/hype around trying to pull the SAR is very powerful.
Rip modern packs for fun to pull the cards you like, or buy the raw cards when they are much lower in price.
Vintage is different. Many of them are actually scarce (low pop), very sought after assets by real diamond hand collectors. There is no more supply to hit the market or be graded.
Vintage will have a correction, but there will be far more demand to buy at lower prices, whereas the floor for modern is mostly 80-90% lower and will stay there. There will be a few anomalies, and a few modern cards that become grails, which will sustain enough demand to see a price rise eventually.
Couple of beauties from my PC below that will stand the test of time (personal preference is Japanese vintage).