Data Analyst @Bucknell_MBB

Joined September 2021
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Introducing a new basketball stat I created called PEST! It is used to quantify the aggressiveness of perimeter defense in the NBA. Results and methodology below 🧵
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Ryan Miele retweeted
Good read from John Hollinger on how recent NBA finals matchups are not so much about having the most dominant player, but having the strongest weak link. nytimes.com/athletic/7353715… Very much like @BuckAnalytics theorized in a CBB-lense a while back. Ahead of the game!
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One of my favorite 2nd round guys is Bruce Thornton. He’ll fall due to his age and height, but he’s an incredible offensive player.
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- 6’5 wingspan with 220 pound frame is passable - 2 years straight of 3.0 AST/TOV - 40% from 3 and 83% FT% - 74% Rim% - 27.3 Net Rating on/off - Average STL BLK% - 79th %tile DRB% - Broke out as a soph - Screams reliable bench spark that takes care of the ball and can space
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One of my favorite late 1st round guys is Zuby Ejiofor. He has a pretty unique Center build with a low center of gravity while being extremely strong and a long 7’2 wingspan. He’s a rebounding monster and showed he can be effective in an On-Ball role.
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- 97th %tile BPM - 90th %tile FTr with a respectable 72% FT% - 1.7 AST/TOV - 9.5% STL BLK% - 95th %tile Pts/40 - 91st %tile PPP on Post Ups - Able to keep defense honest with a 30.5 3P% on 60 attempts -92nd %tile standing vertical
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For a CBB team built around a player at a given position who carries the offensive usage, which roles/style should the supporting cast lean into, and which should it avoid, to maximize offense?
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Takeaways: - Mid Range is consistently negative for all hubs - A support cast doesn’t need to create their own rim attacks (especially around a big) - Transition positive impact grows as hub gets bigger - Connectors are crucial - Spacing from shooters benefits Wing/Big the most
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Bison!!
INF Sean Keys, with 14 homers and a .982 OPS in 48 games at AA this year, is heading up to Triple-A Buffalo, per source. He's been a big piece of New Hampshire's banging lineup this year, but now one step closer to the #BlueJays
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Two years ago, I wrote a research article on the Stretch 5’s impact in the NBA playoffs. 5 of the last 6 finalists and 8 of the last 12 semi-finalists heavily used a Stretch 5. Link to the article below
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Ryan Miele retweeted
this one means something to Wemby

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With the 12th overall pick the Oklahoma City Thunder select….
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In a report this winter I predicted Jose Soriano would be a breakout candidate. Pretty cool that he made the pitch mix changes I suggested and has been a top 10 SP in the AL so far. Sinker % decreased 20% 4 Seam FB % increased 15.6% Splitter % increased 8.5%
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Check out my research article on the Weak Link Theory: How the Worst Defender has a Larger Impact than the Best Defender. It still holds true 2 years later. medium.com/@ryancmiele/the-w…
The Knicks got Harden to switch into 9 isolations in the 4th quarter and OT, getting an obscene 1.9(!!) points per direct action.
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A key part in the Spurs defensive strategy of game 1 was to leave Caruso open. This backfired as he was 8/13 (61.5%) on wide open 3Ps in game 1. He’s averaged only 3 wide open 3PAs per game in the playoffs before yesterday.
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The groundbreaking analysis that everyone has been waiting for: Average Net Rating based on the college coach’s attire. Suit/Parts of Suit: 0.51 Net Rating No Suit: 0.20 Net Rating #Analytics
🚨Suit tracker for every college basketball coach in the country🚨 My complete list of every Division I head coach and what they and their staffs will wear on the sidelines is here! For an explanation of the process, see the document linked in the spreadsheet, or check out the article in the replies. My DMs are open, so please feel free to share any corrections or feedback to improve the spreadsheet in any way! docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Does being taller, by itself, make a player better? Taller players on average are more valuable in CBB. However, if you have 2 players with the same overall rating, the taller one isn’t meaningfully better. The rating already captures most of the benefits of the height. (Cont)
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The only real bonuses that height adds on top are physical advantages: slightly fewer fouls on shot contests and slightly better rebounding. The rest of the benefits of being taller is already baked into the overall RAPM.
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If you must choose between 2 random players knowing only their heights, take the taller one. But if you have 2 players with the same overall RAPM, the taller one isn’t necessarily better because the rating accounts for the benefits of the height.
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Trying to figure out where I went wrong on not having Ajay Mitchell as one of my 2nd round guys in ‘24. Extremely high driving frequency and efficiency (higher as a soph), 86% FT%, 48% FTR, 1.5 AST/Tov. Think I over indexed on him being 22 years old against weaker competition.
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