Sunday College Baseball BEST BET 🍀
Record: 24-18 ( 7.69 U)
⚾️ | West Virginia vs UNC at 7pm EST
After sweeping the Super Regionals, my streak came to an end on Friday when I took Ole Miss ML against UNC at this exact price.
I view Ole Miss and West Virginia as comparable teams, but West Virginia gets a much more favorable matchup than Ole Miss did.
Sophomore Ryan Lynch is a very good pitcher, but there is a sizeable drop-off between him and Jason DeCaro. He doesn't have the same stuff as DeCaro and regularly invites contact.
His 8.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 aren't exactly intimidating, and while his 4.22 ERA is solid, his 3.90 SIERA suggests he's more good than dominant.
This is also a difficult matchup for him.
West Virginia isn't known for its power, but it runs an elite, contact-driven offense. Georgia is the only other team in Omaha hitting above .300 as a lineup, and West Virginia enters at .307.
The last pitcher West Virginia knocked around, Benjamin Stubbs, is similar to Lynch in that he posted nearly identical SIERA and strikeout rates.
Pitchers who consistently allow contact tend to get bludgeoned by this lineup, and I think Lynch is in line for the same fate.
UNC struggled against Taylor Rabe, and I expect a similar outcome against Max Yehl.
The Big 12 Pitcher of the Year has been outstanding this season, posting a 2.10 ERA and 2.70 SIERA with a 10.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, all significantly better marks than Lynch.
Yehl hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since April 4 against UCF.
Meanwhile, Lynch allowed four earned runs in his last outing against USC, an offense I consider less dangerous than West Virginia's.
UNC got 2.1 innings out of Caden Glauber on Friday. He'll likely be available again, but I don't expect him to provide much length.
West Virginia's bullpen is completely rested after Ian Horn delivered six innings out of the bullpen.
WVU should get 5-6 innings from Yehl before turning things over to its high-leverage arms, and being without its long man shouldn't be a significant issue.
West Virginia owns the starting pitching advantage and, by SIERA, the overall pitching staff advantage. UNC's offense is better on paper, but I love West Virginia's matchup against Lynch.
Ole Miss closed at even money against UNC. I expect this game to close in a similar range, but this time, West Virginia gets the job done.
The Pick: West Virginia ML ( 138)
- Risk 0.5 U
@BetMGM
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