Natural Gas speculators are net short 194K contracts (COT Index: 2/100)

Dairy processors investing billions in capacity expansion across growth regions. Gold non-commercial specs held 174K net long contracts as of 2026-06-09, per CFTC Legacy.

WTI crude: Non-commercial specs held 130K net long as of CFTC Legacy 2026-06-09. Strait of Hormuz reopening announced Monday, with WTI falling 4.62% to $80.96/bbl in early Asia trading.

#Corn specs are 199,942 net long at the 71st percentile, after cutting 102,060 contracts in a single week. The split is the interesting part: US stocks-to-use at 12.9% is comfortable and above the 9.9% average, while world S/U at 23.8% sits below its 26.6% norm and keeps tightening. The positioning tracks the world picture, not the US one. With the spec long already trimmed this hard, the question is whether world tightening pulls fresh buyers back in or the unwind continues.

#Cotton specs hold 85,206 net long, 96th percentile over two years, with US stocks-to-use at 32.4% against a 26.4% average and world supply looser still at 64.7%. Supply is abundant on both sides of the ledger and specs are crowded long regardless. The 32-point gap between US and world S/U makes the long hard to square with the balance sheet. Either there's a demand or world-supply angle the WASDE isn't capturing, or this is a crowded trade running ahead of the fundamentals it's supposed to track.

#Soybean meal specs are 156,187 net long, 99th percentile over two years and 96th over ten, while US soybean supply sits at 8.2% stocks-to-use against a 6.7% five-year average. That's a comfortable balance sheet. Oil is close behind at the 95th percentile. The crush products standing out, it's positioned more heavily than the beans themselves, which sit at the 78th. If bean fundamentals were driving this, the beans would lead. Instead it points at processing margins or product demand carrying the complex, and positioning this stretched needs that margin story to keep holding.

Lean #hogs sit at -42,121 net short, 1st percentile in both windows, Z-score -2.27. The speed is what stands out: the 4-week average was -17,195, so specs more than doubled the short in a month. When positioning washes out this far, there's little speculative short fuel left to drive it lower, and commercials are already 41,690 net long against it. A stabilisation here mechanically favours covering, though positioning won't tell you when.

#Bitcoin specs are net long 3,018 contracts, the 99th percentile in both the 2-year and 10-year windows, Z-score 2.36. Hedge funds hold 15.3% of open interest long and have added for 13 straight weeks, so the conviction is real and sustained. The catch at the 99th percentile is that you need fresh buyers to keep it moving, and most of them are already in. If price stalls here, that crowding becomes the risk.

12 futures markets reached 95th percentile extremes this week — the widest cross-market positioning spread in recent months.

Copper specs last held a similar position 1 weeks ago (2026-05-26). Current net: 79K.

Crude oil speculators hold net long position of 156K contracts, down 5K this week. Positioning remains elevated despite modest reduction in bullish bets.

Natural Gas futures: non-commercial specs held 186K net short contracts as of June 2, 2026 (CFTC Legacy). AI data center power demand growth may test grid capacity and energy margins ahead.

Grains COT Scorecard: Market Net Pos Net/OI ------------------------------ Corn 200K 11% Soybeans 188K 18% Soybean Meal 156K 23% Soybean Oil 148K 20% Wheat (SRW) -41K -8% Wheat (HRW) -9K -3%

ZWC soybeans: quality at 65% good-to-excellent per USDA. Non-commercial specs held 188K net long as of CFTC Legacy 2026-06-02. Winter wheat quality remains weak at 25%.

ZCZ26 corn non-commercial speculators held 200K net long position as of Jun 2, 2026 per CFTC Legacy. Fungicide timing decisions may influence yield protection strategies ahead.

Copper specs have been net long at the 99th percentile for nine consecutive weeks. 78,833 contracts net long, 23.3% of open interest. That's not a spike - it's a structural hold. When a crowded trade stays crowded at multi-year extremes for months, it usually means one of two things: the macro thesis is strong enough that nobody wants to be the first to leave, or the position has become consensus and is now just waiting for a catalyst to unwind. The data doesn't tell you which. It tells you the exit door is narrow. Copper is 47,583 contracts above its full-period average. Anyone who built this position early is sitting on a crowded trade with significant embedded P&L. That combination - extreme positioning plus embedded gains - historically makes for sharp reversals when they come. #Copper #COT #CommitmentsOfTraders #CommodityTrading #MacroTrading #Futures #CFTC

SRW wheat non-commercial specs held 41K net short as of June 2, 2026 (CFTC Legacy), as U.S. flour production fell 10% in Q1 amid consumer protein diet shifts and ongoing drought stress.

Free weekly COT analysis: 10Y Treasury shorts hit -829k contracts (19th percentile) while 5Y sits at 97th percentile net short.

Brazilian Real specs last held a similar position 1 weeks ago (2026-05-19). Current net: 72K.

SRW wheat non-commercial specs held 9K net short position as of CFTC Legacy 2026-05-26, amid Delmarva frost and drought cutting yields 30%. Quality concerns around falling number and preharvest sprouting persist despite minimal head scab.