The convo about whether ETA is risky etc etc has gotten too general
Not all business acquisitions are created equal. Even ones with a lot of leverage, PG, and limited operator experience can be very different
We need to focus more on the TYPE of biz. Obviously, this hugely influences the risk of your deal.
If you’re thinking about buying a small business, you shouldn’t just think about the risk of the debt, your lack of experience, and overall business acquisition. You need to think about how the business you buy and the industry your in influences your risk. Not all ETA is the same.
For context, I bought into an industry I didn’t have experience in with PG and a lot of debt. Plus investors. If not obvious, my biz now also sells services to ETA. Just so all my cards are on the table
Inexperienced operators buying a business (some with a lot of debt some without) has been around for decades. Stanford has its study, Harvard has its book.
@walkerdeibel has Buy and Build. There are dozens of investors who have been doing this for decades.
There’s nuances, and different perspectives on the margin, but ultimately, they’re all guiding towards a simple, obvious concept. The foundation of ETA.
Buy a good business in a great industry at a reasonable price. Put a very hungry, talented, albeit unproven, operator in at the helm, and the protections of the first sentence (biz, industry and valuation quality) should provide enough cover for the person to make a ton of mistakes, learn, and then generally grow and emerge out the other side successful.
Obviously this is a comically simple concept. It frustrated me a lot when I was searching. Heard it from investors all the time. I was always like “well duh, of course that’s what I want to buy”. But now 2.5 years into operating I’m a pretty strong believer in many of the ETA frameworks, even if they’re offensively simple at times.
Is buying a business as a young operator risky? Yes
But if you buy a good business in a great industry, you will do a ton to de-risk it. If you’re evaluating the risks of ETA, focus on the risks once you’ve bought a decent business in a good industry, not just the general risks of buying a business. That’s just too general.
Are there people who bought in a tough industry or bought a bad biz and still crushed it? Yes, of course. And there are exceptions the other way.
But the vast majority of all ETA deals that get done, and especially the successful ones, check most of the boxes.
And many of the ones that went south obviously did not check critical boxes
So if you’re thinking about doing ETA, and you’re evaluating the risk, make sure you’re thinking about it through the lens of what you’re actually buying, not just the overall risk of buying a biz.
Buying a project based business with <$750K SDE? Incredibly risky. Think construction related.
Buying a consistent revenue business with scale in a good industry? A lot less risky.