Huge milestone for me, aiming to hit 100k by eoy

Sports variance isn't for the faint of heart, feels very different to other stuff on Polymarket where it is very clear very fast that you either have edge or you don't. I am still questioning if my underlying trading is profitable without rebates liquidity rewards

$2 million for sports liquidity rewards are live for the next couple of weeks 😛 more rewards coming for the rest of the markets polymarket.com/rewards

Is there any better feeling than seeing this in your counterparties activity feed after you lift their order?

Since it's in vogue currently to share Jane street interview experiences here's mine. Q1: Using 2s and 3s only, create a list of numbers that sums to 10 with the highest product (for ex 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 sums to 10 and the product is 32). I just kind of straightforward dived into this (mistake in hindsight) got 2, 2, 3, 3. The immediate follow up- what about doing the same but summing to 20. I just naively blurted out- what if I just reused my last solution twice for 4 2s and 4 3s? Interviewer asked how confident I was, I said 60%. Then asked what would improve that. I said if I knew my first answer was more correct I would be more confident. He tells me I was correct on the first answer and I say 90% confident now (god knows why). Immediately he tells me that my answer for 20 is wrong and it's actually 6 3s and 1 2. Needless to say I was very frazzled after that and even though the interviewer was kind enough to give me a layup sum of two dice rolls for q2 I knew I'd botched it. My main surprise was that they invited me to re interview for a swe role after.

Polymarket has fucked up yet again with their vibe coding, it is possible to use anybody's username for your referral code. Anyway everyone use my referral code: polymarket.com/?r=scottilici…

DOGE, HYPE, and BNB - 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 1d up/down markets are now live 😛

It seems the tidal wave of zscdao slop about poly short term crypto markets has abated. I was wondering if there would be any interest if I wrote an x article about the basics and how bots actually make money trading them?

A Polymarket trader ran a Wolf of Wall Street–level play overnight - made $233K by drained liquidity from trading bots and it flew completely under the radar. The setup was brilliant and extremely simple. A trader known as @a4385 made $233K overnight exploiting 15-minute Polymarket markets. Saturday night. Liquidity is thin. Binance spot order books are shallow. On “XRP Up or Down — Jan 17, 12:45–1:00 PM ET” he aggressively bought UP at any price. His counterparties were trading bots. Polymarket market making is relatively straightforward, with low barriers to entry for solo devs and trading bots are now very popular. By the 10th minute of the market - XRP was down ~0.3% from the open yet he had pushed UP shares to 70¢. The bots saw an opportunity and walked straight into the trap selling him even more UP. ~77K UP accumulated at an average price of ~48¢. Two minutes before settlement, a wallet on Binance bought ~$1M USDT of XRP spot, pushing price ~0.5% higher. Seconds after settlement, the $1M spot buy was sold back. Cost of the manipulation: ~0.25% slippage each way fees. With Binance VIP 4 level (0.06%) (quite easy to obtain) and 0.25% slippage on both sides the total cost was ~$6,200; It may be less. He ran the same play multiple times, cleaning out bot wallets by exploiting thin weekend liquidity. @a4385 - polymarket.com/profile/0x506… Some bots were shut down in time. Others didn’t react fast enough and lost their entire balances - including polymarket.com/@aleksandmone…, which gave up a full year of profits.

After 1 month trying to figure out how the weather at Seoul airport works! 😅 3.3K $ today in this market poly.market/lQU6Wh9

BREAKING: Polymarket appears to be introducing fees as high as 3% on the 15-minute Crypto up/Down Markets. A new page on their documentation website has appeared, which strongly suggests that fees are about to be enabled for these markets.

Just tested it out. 3 attempts, ~$30 profit. 🙇 ​Switched to Polymarket for this run, though. My limit orders keep disappearing on Limitless, and it's too risky to test there right now without constantly babysitting the screen. ​I'll drop the bot soon once the backtesting is successful. ​Tech Stack: AI provider: OpenRouter AI model: DeepSeek v3 Bot: Node.js

Crypto nosediving into the dumpster. Meanwhile I'm just plugging away on polymarket

A new high frequency edge just appeared on @Polymarket the Bitcoin up or down 15 minute market. Every 15 minutes, you bet whether BTC will be higher or lower than a preset price to beat. Example: Price to beat - $104.528. Current price - $104.903. The market still pays 8.26× (13¢ odds) on Up, implying only a 12 % chance even though the real probability sits closer to 30-35 %. That’s pure EV. A structural inefficiency in a real time prediction feed. Two plays: → Capture both sides for a sure win spread (use a calculator). → Or play naked on the mispriced leg compounding small edges over time. Markets like this (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) will normalize soon. While liquidity’s still thin, this is free alpha for data timed traders. polymarket.com/event/bitcoin…

A completely unsaturated market on Polymarket is the "Bitcoin up or down" 15 min. Every 15 min you get a price to beat, in this screenshot: $101,747. So you can bet up if you think the price will be higher, or bet down if you think it will be lower. At the start of the bet, on the 15 min left mark, it should be a breakeven bet (50/50). However, the odds are 51/51, which equals 1.96 in odds on both sides. So far, so good. But after following quite a few of these 15 minute bets over time, I noticed that the odds is completely skewed. Take a look at the screenshot again: To beat: $101,747 Current price: $101,501 Odds: 12c (8.26 decimal). (The screenshot says 8c, but with $100 size it gives 12c). If we use 12c, it means that there is a 88% probability this won't happen. Again, at the 15 min mark this should be 50/50. But with 5 min left, and the fact that the current price is 0,2% lower than "price to beat" maybe the correct odds should be 65/35, or even 70/30. But here you are getting paid 88/12, which is massively EV, and is a bet you should take any day of the week. Several ways to go about this: -You could try to hedge on both sides. For example if you captured the 8.26 odds, you could try to capture 1.30 (77c) on the other side if it swings back for a 12,3% sure win. Use a sure win calc for the math: checkbestodds.com/surebets/c… -You could do the naked bet (only playing the 8.26 odds) and hope that you win. Capturing these kind of bets will make you a winner long term at least. Use Kelly criterion or if you are max degen a 1/10 Martingale (oops, you may end up broke). They have this kind of market for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. 99% sure this kind of market will be saturated soon, so if you are a fresh Polymarket player, go here to farm volume. Only possible with small bet sizes: $50-$200.

it happened again but this time in London, around $15 into $9600, the last couple of weeks have been insane

Sometimes the bots make mistakes, Knight Capital happens at least once a week in crypto up down on Polymarket

RT @hans323: a nice little bonus to wrap up the month