This chart is why I'm staying away from the SpaceX IPO.
Five of the most hyped IPOs of the last 15 years, and every single one collapsed after listing.
- UBER lost 70% of its IPO price.
- META crashed 77% from its peak.
- Robin Hood fell 92%.
- Coinbase fell 93%.
- Rivian fell 95%.
The hype is always priced in on day one. The people who bought the hype got crushed.
But look at where the real money was made. At the bottom, when nobody wanted these stocks. Robinhood went up 22x from its low. Meta went up 45x. Uber 7x.
Patience beat hype in every single case and Rivian reminds us that even patience doesn't save every company.
SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO of the decade. History tells me I don't need to be there on day one. If it's a great business, there will be a better price later.
There almost always is.
First they fall.
Then they fly.