Joined March 2024
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29 May 2025
Version 1.1.5 of Canada Stats Hub for Android is now available! More than one hundred charts and the ability to create your own. You can now download data directly from StatsCan. Install now!
See link and instructions in the comments ->>>
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The BoC commodity index is still very high, but it is no longer at an extreme level that tends to cause a lot of demand destruction.
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2/2 The BoC Energy index is further away from extreme levels (even though it is still high). I think oil would have to go to 130 to 140 to really destroy a lot of demand in Canada.
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StatsCan just released the Q1 household disposable income and expenditure data. Households have tightened their budgets since 2023, but now income growth has slowed down. Will they further tighten the belts to keep expenditure below disposable income?
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StatsCan just released the household debt service ratio: 14.7%. It has been at this level for 18 months now. It is a bit lower than the 15.2% ATH in 2023, but it is still extremely high. Such level of indebtedness is guaranteed to reduce the growth potential of our economy.
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The quarter over quarter annualized Q1 household income data shows a similar picture of financial deterioration: incomes are growing at or below the CPI. There is no sign of improvement in 2026 so far.
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StatsCan just released the household income data. The growth has significantly slowed in Q1. It is now at levels consistent with recessions: 2.4% YoY. Such levels were seen in the early 90's, dot com bust, GFC and 2016. The latter was a "near miss".
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StatsCan will release quarterly household statistics tomorrow. Income and disposable income growth have been very slow, but not quite at a deep recession level at this point. Having said that, a lot of it is concentrated in high income households.
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It seems that Canadian politicians at the federal and provincial levels are walking back on some of the more agressive trade tactics towards the USA. Maybe they are recognizing that you can't fully diversify from the country that is responsible for 69% of your exports.
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Both imports and exports to the USA recovered in March/April. We are back to the post pandemic trend. Trade with China and the EU continued to be dwarfed by it.
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Having said that, growth of trade with China and Europe is pretty good, but not enough to diversify trade much considering that the dollar amount is very small compared to the trade with the USA.
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Breaking! StatsCan just released the merchandise trade balance data. Exports shot up, which allowed for a positive trade balance. It had been negative for several months. This should help Q2 GDP.
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I wonder if oil exports to the USA were revised up in March and reflect the higher Oil prices April.
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Forgot to post this last week: Canada's M2 velocity continues a 50 year march lower. It is now at 0.96. Each dollar created via lending generates less than one dollar of GDP.
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The rentals.ca report is out. Rents are down 4.7% YoY. That measure has been negative for 20 months. Rents are up 0.1% from April, which is quite low for the season. Renters and 1st time buyers rejoice!
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The overall unemployment rate fell to 6.6% last month. It has been around that region for 20 months now. Ontario unemployment is the worst, but slightly trending lower. BC, Alberta and Quebec are trending higher.
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Breaking! StatsCan just realeased the May LFS and Canada unexpectedly added 87k jobs. We are back at the LFS and SEPH data (payroll) not making sense again. Will see what the April SEPH prints in a few weeks.
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StatsCan will realease the May LFS employment data tomorrow. I am expecting another bad print considering the recent trend towards no job creation over 12 months. The SEPH is already there. Having said that, monthly figures are not very reliable.
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Yikes. It just costed $1 trillion in AI investment to create chatbots that help hackers take over high profile accounts. In this case, hackers just ask to reset high profile Instagram accounts. This must be the the most stupid bubble ever (after the tulip one).
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Meta AI leads to hack of Barack Obama Instagram here is the video how it was hacked due to ai model foolishness
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Nothing lasts forever, therefore everything is transitory 😀🚀
Jun 3
BESSENT: INFLATION IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM BLIP
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