$BWA Capitalizing on Power Generation Bottlenecks / Bring Your Own Power (BYOP) tailwinds.
A pivot from legacy auto supplier to data center power generation.
BWA strategic pivot to power generation via leveraging its expertise with turbos [chargers] is notable & impressive. Its auto exposure remains the primary performance driver as the power generation solutions are not readily available for deployment yet. However, that is expected to change soon, in 2027.
Power remains the ultimate bottleneck to bringing data centers online. And after the massive financial success of
$BE fueled by BYOP (Bring Your Own Power) for BTM power generation, or even as N 1 redundancy, investors are looking for other opportunities. People are calling out
$HYLN, a peak-SPAC-era de-SPAC that has pivoted its business model more than can be counted. HYLN touts a solution that is agnostic to multiple sources of inputs. Also, FinTwit has hyped
$FCEL, a company I have followed on ‘n off for many many years, to which it never really did much. But maybe now it has some opportunities. But now there is a new, and potentially formidable competition entering the game.
$BWA pivot is notable. Aside from
$BE, the others don’t have the engineering expertise/pedigree of BWA, nor the manufacturing capabilities. The Company is offering a turbine generator system that is compatible with Natural Gas, Propane, Diesel, and Hydrogen, providing flexibility to DC owners. Additional data centers opportunities the Company is expanding into is capitalizing on the BESS opportunity and Bi-directional microgrid inverters.
The power generation solutions is expected to begin sales in 2027, forecasting sales of ~$300mm . Due the shortage of turbines with backlogs extending through the end of the decade for
$CAT $SIEM.NE etc., alternatives such as
$BE have been successful. That coupled with localities increasingly requiring data centers to BYOP and generate fewer emissions,
$BWA entering the market to capitalize is brilliant. Its existing manufacturing footprint provides the opportunity to scale the segment pretty meaningfully and possibly faster than some might expect. The power gen solution alone could be a significant driver of growth & profitability in FY28 . It also diversifies the business away from legacy auto-market cyclicality, smoothing out revenue & earnings.
The expansion into BESS and power conversion, which are expected to be production ready in FY27 / contributor in FY28, offers additional revenue upside.
From a valuation perspective, even despite its massive 1yr run-up, BWA is still only trading for ~8x LTM EBITDA, and even cheaper on a forward basis. Most importantly, the market does not appear to be factoring in the revenue uplift from the product expansion efforts. Accounting for the valuation and anticipated growth, the R/R appears to be favorable with valuation probably limiting downside. Downside would probably be driven by a rotation out of AI-related equities to a risk-off mindset or AI market concerns. But at this point you’d be buying a business primarily an auto parts supplier with the aforementioned opportunities as a call option (cheap option with probably a high probability of hitting). It’s also an established business in comparison to
$HLYN and
$FCEL.
The returns would be fueled via a mix of earnings growth (NI & EBITDA) and multiple expansion via a re-rating as growth accelerates and profitability gains. One could argue BWA being a 11-14x business.
Overall, the market is presenting an opportunity to get power-gen exposure at a reasonable valuation without even treating power gen/BESS/ power conversion as call option. It does not appear to ascribe much value to the opportunity, despite having opportunities in the pipeline. And imo,
$BWA execution risk is far less than that of a company like
$HYLN or
$FCEL as its far better capitalized and larger scale. That is on top of the aforementioned engineering expertise.