Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.
Joined June 2022
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28 Jul 2022
Carson Partners offers investment advisory service through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.
14600 Branch St, Omaha, NE 68154
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Jun 12
Boom times, w/ $SPCX drawing $350B in demand 😱
But this is an inflationary boom & despite AI, productivity growth has eased
Inflation 🔥
Real wages 👎
Margins 🌟
Forget the ‘90s, this could be late ‘60s redux
New blog👇
@CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick
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So much for "AI is killing jobs." The May jobs report blew past expectations, and @sonusvarghese argues the labor market isn't just fine, it's re-accelerating.
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Here's the catch. A strong labor market is colliding with hot inflation.
Core services (ex-housing) PCE is up 3.6% from a year ago and running near 3% annualized, well above the 2.2% pace of 2018-19. Yet the Fed is holding rates.
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With inflation hot and rising, holding rates steady means policy is actually getting loose. Good for stocks right now. But the longer it runs, the harder the eventual fix.
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The private side runs on a spectrum too: venture capital backing concept-stage startups, then growth equity, buyouts, direct lending, and real assets.
Higher potential returns, but illiquid and often limited to accredited investors.
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Source: Carson Investment Research, OpenAI 6/4/26
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There's no free lunch.
Going back to 1928, T-bills returned about 3% a year, a 60/40 mix about 8%, the S&P 500 about 10%, and small caps about 12%.
Higher returns come bundled with bigger swings. Pick the trade-off that fits your timeline and tolerance.
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Stocks return roughly 10% a year over time, but you pay for it.
Since 1980, the S&P 500's average drop in a calendar year has been 14%.
The volatility is the price of admission.
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Cash feels safe, but it isn't a wealth builder.
Since 1928, stocks returned 8.5% a year after inflation. Cash returned 0.3%.
Over the decades, cash has barely kept pace with rising prices.
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Strip away the jargon, and almost every investment does one of three things:
✔️lend money (debt),
✔️own a piece of a business (equity),
✔️or own a real thing people use (real assets).
Everything else is a wrapper or a combination.
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Source: Carson Investment Research, OpenAI 6/4/26
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The investing vocabulary is enormous, and nobody explains how the pieces fit together. Our team broke down the map: stocks, bonds, ETFs, PE, VC, and what each one is doing in your portfolio.
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SpaceX could be the largest IPO in history, with OpenAI and Anthropic lining up behind it. @sonusvarghese ran 45 years of IPO data on what really happens after the bell rings.
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So where does SpaceX land?
On $18.7B of 2025 revenue and a reported ~$1.7T valuation, that's roughly 91x sales, off the right edge of that chart. It's also unprofitable.
History says expect a big day-one pop, then a long slog.
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None of this means avoid IPOs.
It means don't get swept up in the day-one hype. The ones that reward long-term holders tend to be bigger, profitable, and reasonably priced. Quality wins over time.
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Source: Professor Jay Ritter of the University of Florida
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