Keep it simple.
Joined September 2021
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Castles Δ retweeted
bitcoin:native New Week Begins Tomorrow 👀
Weekends aren't for trading. But Mondays are
Here's what I'm watching, and yes, assume I'm staring at the same levels as everyone else:
Monday's range: $62.3k–$64.2k
200-week SMA: ~$62k,still no weekly close below, holding, for now
5 SMA on the 2D: ~$64.3k
2D Stochastics: crossed up above $60k
Daily Stochs crossed up above $61.3k
Lot of confluence stacked in this zone,market knows it
The lines in the sand:
✅ Weekly close above $64.5k squeeze risk increases, $69.5k potential target
❌ Weekly close below $62k, bearish continuation ❌ Below $60k, that's where it gets ugly fast
Worth noting the Iran deal and SpaceX are short-term risk-on catalysts, could give BTC a Monday bounce. But until there's a clean weekly close above $64.5k area, it's noise until proven otherwise
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The market has balanced from a positioning standpoint moving into next week with BOJ rates and Warsh's first FOMC.
Institutional basis is essentially unwound and considering IBIKT is call heavy I suspect CME shorts added as a directional hedge.
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Jun 13
Congrats @solana 🫠
Jun 12
If you're wondering what happened to Solana @PreStocks SpaceX, they got absolutely crushed and are now trading around ~$112 (after 5:1 split), implying a ~40% discount to the underlying shares.
Turns out there's a 180-day lockup before preStocks can be converted into real shares (I suspect very few people were aware of this). So holders have two choices: dump into a thin-liquidity market at a steep discount today, or wait 180 days and convert at full value. Looks like many crypto degens are choosing the former.
Interestingly, this issue doesn't exist (and couldn't exist) in the $SPCX perp market.
Pre-IPO markets only make sense to trade via perps.
Hyperliquid.
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Castles Δ retweeted
Jun 12
No, you don't get it.
He does not have $1 trillion sitting in cash, it is 99% stock in his companies.
To make that wealth liquid would mean selling all that stock which would swiftly destroy *both* the companies (Tesla, SpaceX, others) and the wealth. If he sold it all, he'd end up with maybe $100b max, several hundred thousand people would be out of work, the companies ruined and many of their suppliers also ruined.
Okay, but now Elon has $100b in cash, and can "solve the world's problems".
$100b divided by the world's 8 billion people is $12
If you were in charge, several of the most innovative industrial companies in the world would be destroyed, hundreds of thousands out of work, and space would again close to human civilization for another generation.
But everyone on earth could have one nice meal and you could revel in your altruism.
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Jun 12
Everything I do is free and will always be free. There is no paid group, no signals, just a trading journey.
The GM Brief (Daily report on Macro, Basis, Options, Institutional Positioning and Aggregated Market Positioning) is FREE.
Link in bio lads.
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Jun 12
"I am going to start a DAT with the sole purpose of buying the most pristine ultrasound money in existence today"
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Jun 11
Pay attention when $BTC RV > IV is sustained and the gap is widening.
= -ve volatility risk premium (VRP) regime, and it's one of the more meaningful signals in options land because it's unusual.
Wanna learn why? 🧵👇
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Jun 11
4. It's an unstable state that resolves one of two ways.
- Either RV cools and IV was "right," or IV reprices up to meet reality
>> that repricing tends to be FAST rather than gradual, because the vol sellers who were suppressing IV step away (or get stopped out) all at once.
The longer RV stays above IV, the more pressure builds on short-vol positioning.
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Jun 11
5. What does my model tell me?
- The vol market is pricing stabilization with ~1-in-3 chance that $60k gets retested this month,
~1-in-7 that it breaks to a new deep low by June 26th expiries, and an acute phase that's over (flat term structure, IV off peak).
- What it is not pricing is an all clear. IV 10 points above pre-crash levels and a steep front-month put skew mean the insurance bid is still live.
- If DVOL breaks back under ~40 and the June skew flattens toward the September level, that would give me confidence in a long bias.
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Jun 11
cap.
Jun 10
"I burned roughly $5,000 of API tokens in a few hours for $200. It's 100x subsidized. This is insanity"
Kain on running 500 agents to decompose an entire codebase on Claude Opus 4.8
"I set up my own personal account to test this on Opus 4.8. I know enough that I can come up with a task that's gonna burn a fuckload. In the course of four hours I used something like 200 million tokens and didn't hit any limits"
"It was hundreds of agents, like 500 or 600 agents decomposing a codebase. It would have been somewhere on the order of $5,000 with API metered tokens, and I know how much tokens cost because that's where I live"
"I ran this overnight multiple times. It's very possible I could have burned through $20,000 worth of API credits for $200. I knew it was subsidized, but it's subsidized to a level that's crazy. It's 100x subsidized"
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Jun 11
$BTC
Nice range forming with clear levels on both sides.
Weekly/Daily confluent Poor Lows would be nice to sweep.
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