Bitcoin and ETH update:
Been working couple of days for this update and still my bias remains unchanged and my bias has been very clear during the last updates covering most of the major assets.
I mentioned back in early February ETH hitting its most dominant cycle with Vitalik selling and into the 2K key level where I accumulated more altcoins:
x.com/ChainHubCT/status/2019…
We are now in that window of a low in early May and based on this I was expecting a bearish Titanic and I wanted BTC to hit better demand levels sub 58k which never came. The POC stood like a wall absorbing all that previous bearish momentum.
So we kept consolidating and I made a post on why this zone was too sticky because of the amount of acceptance there, this is why it took a lot of time:
x.com/ChainHubCT/status/2034…
Because we consolidated that much until the next pivot, BTC had no reason to dump. It was the first shift in time cycles. We had the first neutral cycle until the next cycle which is a sign of bullishness. All this time consumed with grinding up is a recipe for bullishness.
You can clearly see how this demand is sticky and ''weak'' because of this gradual increase. If there is really big demand there, you will see price leaving gaps behind not a gradual PA.
What happens next?
Well since this PA is still grinding, I don't see a reason why BTC cannot keep going to 86k and even reach 93k with BCS 100k. But in order to get those juicy swing shorts, you want to see a big and aggressive move to supply.
I am not interested in swing shorting a slow grind like that. The best tops and bottoms have always a climax recipe. Why? Because that's when people chase the moves. You don't see retail longing a boring and grinding structure, they long when they will see a big aggressive move. It goes along with psychology. People get more fearful to enter a trade when it's fast. Whales want people to become more emotional so they make bad decisions and euphoria is the best way to do that (e.g: BTC top at 126k-98k and compare the opposite with SPX's top which was slow and that was why I was never convinced of the stock market putting a decent topping structure).
Furthermore, I don't think we are at a macro level where there is enough fuel to reverse price yet. Sure we are at resistance but it's not fuel. The fuel is contained within the supplies not horizontal levels. Wicks/poles do not contain any liquidity.
Yes we could top here but for me, odds are low.
Same goes with ETH and that 2500$. I think it is so likely that ETH goes there with the same targets on BTC (The January Supply). So it can go to 3200$ if it is able to cut through 2500 which is a hard task.
BTC and ETH are both looking distributive. Demand is getting exhausted below with that gradual pump. So once we get a climax, there will be a force absorbing retail chasing longs (passive sellers) and that's when market reverses and those longs will unwind and be used as selling pressure as people get liquidated on the way down and since there is no demand below since it's exhausted due to the gradual pump, price will crash. Right now we are building the cause and the effect will come later. The bigger the cause, the bigger the effect.
And that's Wyckoff for you.
We can see a brief altseason in that period. Although many alts have already seen substantial upside so far, but I think they have more room to pump.
When do we top?
I don't exactly know but since I have been mentioning a lot of that late June/July pivot, it's safe to say, way before that. Although we don't know what's gonna happen in that later phase, it's best to wait for PA to develop but logically with all the clues, we should find the top in late May and another major bottom in July after a big crash.
I will update in due time.