Joined January 2025
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"A serious country funds its defence to meet the threat it actually faces, not the threat it wishes it faced." @AlistairCarns, in his resignation letter, 11 June 2026.
challengerresearch.substack.β¦
#alcarns #johnhealey #defenceinvestmentplan
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The Maxim machine gun was going to decide wars too.
Every generation of military analysts finds the technology that will finally resolve war in favour of whoever deploys it first.
They are always right about the weapon. They are always wrong about everything else.
#drones #counterdrones #warfare #military #militarytactics
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Drones are a genuine capability shift.
But @Noahpinion - the "drones win wars" argument has some significant problems.
The U.S. military and the Chinese military are both obsolete as of today.
But in a war, China would be able to retool its military very quickly into a drone-centric force, thanks to its huge industrial base. America would not.
noahpinion.blog/p/all-non-drβ¦
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History has a pattern here. Artillery was going to make infantry obsolete. Tanks were going to end manoeuvre warfare as we knew it. Each new dominant technology produces counters, adaptations, and doctrinal corrections.
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Drones will be no different. They are a serious capability, but they are not a panacea.
challengerresearch.substack.β¦
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We've just published our largest and most significant policy brief to date: Environmental and Societal Damage in Wartime Ukraine: A Multidisciplinary Assessment for Recovery and Accountability.
The report is free - to access it follow the link below:
challengerresearch.com/ukraiβ¦
#Ukraine #UkraineReconstruction
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The same consultancies that told you the metaverse was a $5 trillion opportunity now want you to trust the AI boom.
The same executives who renamed their companies after virtual worlds are now committing $725 billion to AI infrastructure.
We're living in the trust-me bro economy.
#AIBubble #TechHype #AIInvesting
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Unlike today, which sees:
β’ US household debt at a record $18.8 trillion.
β’ Consumer confidence near recessionary levels.
β’ Political violence at its worst since the 1970s.
The people making the bet are not the people who will pay the bill, and the political consequences are already visible - asset-rich households thriving, while wider public feels cornered.
#Inequality #HouseholdDebt #AIEconomy
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China & Russia have spent a decade arguing that Western liberal democracy is a declining model.
A speculative bubble collapsing inside a fractured, indebted, politically polarised West would be the most compelling evidence yet for that argument.
Full piece π
challengerresearch.substack.β¦
#WesternDecline #GeopoliticalRisk #AIBubble
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Is the writing on the wall for Europe's national identities?
The first episode of our Challenging Geopolitics is out this Wednesday, 13/5.
Here's a first look.
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Russia & Ukraine are buying from the same Chinese factories.
The same motors & fibre-optic cable, moving through the same Chinese supply chains into opposing trenches.
The West must decide whether they are willing to acknowledge that this situation is untenable.
challengerresearch.substack.β¦
#Drones #China #SupplyChain #Ukraine #Russia
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