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ChanceOf.XYZ @ChanceofXYZ

Find the chance of xyz happening... Simulate crypto token prices and more. #buildinpublic Join the discord discord.gg/FRG7HChvCG

Joined October 2021
  • Tweets 45
  • Following 0
  • Followers 27
17 Photos and videos
ChanceOf.XYZ retweeted
Tyler Strejilevich
@TylerSCrypto
18 Apr 2023
🚨BREAKING!!!!! @GOPMajorityWhip TORCHING Gary Gensler and highlighting his and the SEC's complete and utter failure to protect ANY retail investors whatsoever And lack of regulatory clarity hostile enforcement against crypto in the US is pushing innovation offshores including but not limited to China Gensler should be removed immediately. #crypto #BTC
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'Done'. Metalog reader in js for probability to quantile, Newton-Raphson for quantile to probability, HDR 4 Seed PRNG, token volatility REST API generating SIPMath v3 output (docker container), Metatlog reader in solidity. A bit disorganized but getting there. #twitteranniversary
flawofaverages.com/top-ten-l…

Top Ten List of Lame Excuses for Not Quantifying Uncertainty — The Flaw of Averages

flawofaverages.com
I'm verifying my Arweave address 1J0S6PDeSCG-GcrmXUjjXuXQdcCjDzLG5FXS_SlUkQw
I'm verifying my Arweave address ijXr7fmNBKDcJupjBSif5NslxHPlaRLjaK-UAL3FkWs
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sig:0x638a41cdd121e7acc258f6ed2ee95cc8f2e041a68104d4c8dd43d73c78388c886461ff91041b4cb77e85e2fd6970c2a3fdba67705a012295bdead98ebfaeff931b mirror.xyz
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Source: slideslive.com/38914510/meta…
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(shape, shape)
It’s ‘probably unlikely to expect certainty’. Does that become a uniform distribution when added? 🤪 livboeree.com/2018/09/27/the… 🚥
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After fitting a distribution with a metalog it may be used to find the probabilities at given values or values at given probabilities. This is done analytically (ie no simulation required) for virtually any shape. #demo #datascience
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More on metalogs blog.chanceof.xyz/metalog-di…
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Metalog distributions are a one way technology. Once you use them you won’t go back to ‘normal’ distributions.
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DeFi protocol exploit timing CDF. Are your tokens safe?
There are roughly 115 named continuous distributions, each with its own unique algebraic formula, restrictive properties, fitting procedures, and shape-flexibility limitations.

ALT Lord Help Me Judge Judy GIF
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Redefining tail risk
A live demo using a chance-data went well today. An API generates historical crypto price distributions for requested tokens and time frame. Used in uniswaption.com a hackathon project lead by the talented @moatazelmasry93
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Here's an example of the returned chance-data. odivaaua9f.execute-api.ap-so… <-- data will be taken down and replaced rsn.

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Once the calling app has chance-data library simulations are easy using hydrate.js. Optionally draw a value for a given probability to find the chances of staying below a threshold. Easy fast and composible. Stackable uncertainty measures.🚥github.com/chanceofxyz/hydra… PRs welcome.

GitHub - chanceofxyz/hydrate: Generate n simulation trials for a SIP in a SIPMath json file

Generate n simulation trials for a SIP in a SIPMath json file - chanceofxyz/hydrate

github.com
ChanceOf.XYZ retweeted
ens.eth
@ensdomains
7 Nov 2021
7pm US eastern time on Monday November 8th That's the time when the ENS governance token $ENS will launch and the token claim website claim.ens.domains will open for claiming. Watch this Twitter account for the latest info. See the thread below for more:

ENS Delegation Manager

Participate in the ENS DAO by delegating your $ENS.

claim.ens.domains
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Chance-data makes it easy to preserve the shape of uncertainty without needing to lug along a lot of historical data. 🚥
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