Bump Would be very cautious looking at any cams that don’t have this level of MCS coverage this morning.

I have a hard time believing any MCS tomorrow morning over central Iowa is just going to vaporize by early afternoon. Hard to buy into a setup based on a derecho decaying when models are notorious for undergoing MCS strength and longevity. We will see in the morning!

Come along on today’s chase with me! Wake up at 8am Drive 7 hours to Bethany, MO Watch the future unionville storm go up Track with it for 30 min Leave it because it looses all low level rotation and scud Gets to St.Joe cell Storm I left produces massive tornado St Joe cell produces uncondensed tornado Knocks over a few trees in my east route Drives south to next east route to see it’s blocked by a bridge out Goes even further south to find the south road also has a bridge out Storm produces fully condensed tornado as I am catching up Does nothing for an hour Rotation starts ramping up I see a nice short cut gravel road option through some rough terrain Yet another bridge out Goes south 5 miles to the next east road Falls behind again Says fuck this it’s outflow dominant anyway and leaves Storm produces large wedge tornado Easily the make frustrating storm chase of my life to date

Yesterday around this time, today looked like it could verify as a 10# tornado risk. This morning however, this is no longer the case. If you are in WI/MN the threat of strong tornadoes and even tornadoes at all is now very low. Most people won't have the balls to tell you this but I am not afraid to be wrong. If you are in WI/MN today is a low/mid range severe weather day that will happen 10 more times this summer. Expect one or two weak tornado reports. This is what the tornado probability should look like today. Could see a world where a 10 CIG1 verifies in my 5% zone. We will see if the SPC adjusts or if they go down with a sinking ship.