Climate models predict a warmer world should produce more evaporation, more humidity and a stronger hydrological cycle. But observations say otherwise. A 2025 study by Ma et al shows global ocean evaporation rose until the late 2000s then declined. Over the past decade, two-thirds of the oceans show weakening evaporation, partly due to slower winds. Another study, Simpson et al, examined humidity over arid regions. Models predict strong increases, but observed data show almost no change in 40 years. In many cases, models overestimate humidity trends by an order of magnitude. Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. If models cannot correctly simulate evaporation and humidity, their climate projections become next to useless. Real-world observations continue to contradict mainstream assumptions.