Steve Hall tells us what to expect: stagflation leading to depression-level deflationary vortex. More social instability and far-right populism. The global creditor class will not learn.
Messy indeed.
What's likely to happen next in the global economy? I'll keep it as simple as possible.
Firstly, the most significant sudden shortage in energy supplies in our history will cause supply-side inflation as the prices of most everyday goods rise. The bond market parasites will demand higher yields and longer maturities, spooking governments about deficit spending, which will have to rise anyway because of increased welfare demands caused by increasingly precarious employment. Irreconcilable tension right away.
Secondly, consumption and aggregate demand will fall, stalling growth and combining with inflation to cause what we used to call 'stagflation'. Skyrocketing prices will trash aggregate demand, asset prices, investment, employment and tax revenue, leading to a reversal into the realm of deflation, as experienced during the US Great Depression. Higher interest rates will further limit investment and state spending, tipping the whole shebang into a deflationary vortex.
Thirdly, states will have to react. So will voters. Far-right populism could expand, so the left will have to stop pissing about with identity politics and get back to political economy. The only partially effective measures capable of pulling back deflation, preventing widespread poverty and quelling civil unrest would be price controls, defict spending, public investment and employment, nationalisation of all infrastructure and key industries, a huge shift in progressive taxation aimed at the wealthy, negative bond yields (or the elimination of the primary and secondary bond markets), tarrifs on selected imports, and strict capital exchange controls.
Of course, the global creditor class would see all this as more instability and a threat to their power and free money. They would hoard their money, squeal for higher yields and interest rates and launch mass-media ideological campaigns to discredit politicians and intimidate voters. Hordes of irredeemably stupid individuals would agree with them and support the misery as an essential 'market correction'. Hours of fun on X.
Sounds very messy, doesn't it? So messy, in fact, that we might as well forget the whole thing and revive the only serious antidote and alternative. It's called socialism. It's not the most easily administered system, and some of the more avaricious, narcissistic and entitled individuals would experience limits on their economic freedoms, but anything is better than the chaotic lunacy that is late-stage capitalism.