Informal plenary @COP28_UAE. #Majlis tomorrow at 15, then Presidency package on Monday. We expect to see a phase-out of fossil fuels, NDC ambition ahead of #COP30, robust adaptation and finance in support of #ClimateAction in the package.
BREAKING #COP28 new text on global stocktake
Now 5 options on fossil fuel phaseout:
1⃣phase out all fossil fuels in line w/ science
2⃣as above 1.5C Paris principles
3⃣"unabated" peak "predominantly" FF free 2050
4⃣unabated net-zero
5⃣"no text"
carbonbrief.org/interactive-…
Amid all the fuzz around the #COP28 President’s references to #Science, this interview with colleagues @Peters_Glen, @ElinLBoasson and myself is timely.
Deadline submissions special issue = end of February: nature.com/collections/gfcdg…
It’s that time of the year, where we get stark reminders of the global discrepancy between political rhetoric and real politics.
Recommended accompanying reading: wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.co…
📢Global Carbon Budget 2023📢
Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023.
Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows!
essd.copernicus.org/articles…
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Wise words from @AdamPolitics on the science controversy at COP28. More research is needed on how different scenarios are produced and used by different actors for different purposes, and with what effects.
#COP28#FossilFuels
How does phasing out *unabated* (i.e. without CCS) versus *abated* (i.e. with CCS) fossil fuels looks like in the latest @IPCC_CH AR6 assessment
First, starting with aggregare fossil fuels (with & without CCS) for mitigation scenarios aligned w PA goals
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#COP28 draft texts latest
More texts have been dropping over past 24hrs but a third of negotiating tracks still haven't published drafts
* no text on adaptation global goal
* mitigation work prog still just list of bullets
* no new text on stocktake
carbonbrief.org/interactive-…
In case you missed it, this is what happens to fossil fuels and clean energy in a typical 1.5°C scenario, this one from the @IEA Net Zero Emissions in 2050 scenario.
iea.org/reports/net-zero-roa…
Abated fossil fuels (left) and unabated (right).
Abated here means with CCS.
Unabated fossil fuels are not zero because:
1) Use in feedstocks (e.g. plastic)
2) Offset by Carbon Dioxide Removal
Note: IEA scenarios uses less fossil fuels than IPCC assessed scenarios.
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2023, the year that all sorts of climate records were broken in crazy ways...
Whether this could have been foreseen or not, maybe, but still fair to say we are entering uncharted territory.
@WilliamJRippleacademic.oup.com/bioscience/…
ALT Title, authors’ names, and abstract of an editorial about the future of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Text: Climate action post-Paris: how can the IPCC stay relevant?
The Special Collection on the future of the IPCC in @ClimateActionSN is starting to take shape. The first four articles are now posted, with more coming soon!
We will soon have a new call for submissions!
Edited by @ElinLBoasson, @Climansen, & myself.
nature.com/collections/gfcdg…
It's great to see another paper reflecting on the future of @IPCC_CH being published. @Climansen @ElinLBoasson @Peters_Glen present 4 stylized reform agendas for the IPCC:
1⃣ Back to basics
2⃣ Tailored broadcasting
3⃣ Orchestrating broad knowledge generation
4⃣ Reflexive learning
The @IPCC_CH has a new leadership & a new cycle is starting. The cycle will end ~2030 when emissions should be 50% lower & 1.5°C possibly crossed.
How can the IPCC stay relevant in this context?
Our intro to the @ClimateActionSN Special Collection:
nature.com/articles/s44168-0…
The @IPCC_CH has a new leadership & a new cycle is starting. The cycle will end ~2030 when emissions should be 50% lower & 1.5°C possibly crossed.
How can the IPCC stay relevant in this context?
Our intro to the @ClimateActionSN Special Collection:
nature.com/articles/s44168-0…
After 2 weeks of negotiations at #UNFCCC#SB58 countries could not agree on how to relate to #IPCC AR6.
Flashback to #SR15 process, but different actor constellations and arguments.
Recycling paper dealing with the SR15 process, relevant lessons there. link.springer.com/article/10…