we are entering stage 3 of the war stage 1: initial round of strikes and kinetic warfare, completely decapitating the leadership of the regime and hitting a large portion of their infrastructure stage 2: economic warfare, under the ceasefire, blocking all oil exports from the regime in iran (iran had not even 1 ship export oil in the month of May) cutting off vital funding for them, as well as letting the USA, Israel and gulf countries re-arm and be ready for a second round of kinetic warfare. the economic hit was arguably stronger than the kinetic hit as we have seen recently the regime become so desperate to even actually come to the negotiating table ONLY for capital injection and unsanctioning of somekind - huge signal that it works, and when they realized no deal it leads to right now where they actually escalate it stage3: probably nearing the start of another round of kinetic warfare soon, iran has already been throwing off cheeky strikes, and i suspect they escalate this soon, the USA and israel will retaliate and go through a very strategic round of second strikes on iran still left to find out what they prioritize now with the strikes, but the 4 most important things in my opinion to achieve out of stage 3 is: 1. another decapitation of remaining leadership, further reducing the regimes ability to even operate 2. hitting all repression infrastructure and the basijis as much as possible, this could even include the militias in iraq and afganistan that are used to come into iran to repress local uprising, this is the single most important achievement that can be done from stage 3 IMO. as the #1 fear of the islamic regime is not strikes or financial compression, but the people of iran uprising, that is the #1 thing that actually threatens their collapse in the near term. 3. arming the iranian people, this ties into the opposite of point #2, which is destroying their repression ability, this is boosting the opposition ability to fight repression and fight from the inside - this is hugely strategic and probably the biggest factor to how long it takes for the regime to fall 4. ensuring the internet in iran stays online and that the IRIB and state media are taken offline - huge help to those inside the key here is that american and israel would need to realize that the way this regime falls is from the inside, not out. and if they do not want to put boots on the ground (which they really do not) this is the only way forward. if israel and the usa instead hit irans energy infrastructure and missiles and drones again, this is still progess but ultimately less productive in terms of time, as it pushes a regime collapse further down the line the only way this war ends is regime collapse and the islamic republic will collapse. it is a matter of WHEN, not IF. dont listen to anyone saying otherwise. this is all in my opinion only lets see in a month or 2 where we are at and if we actually go through a stage3 like this.

operation epic fury has quietly become operation economic fury. the usa is moving to stage 2. the opening strikes decapitated the brain of the irgc, leaving only the body twitching as autonomously governed pieces. now it's choking off the oil revenue that keeps the regime alive. and it's already working. the irgc is publicly calling the foreign minister an idiot, the speaker of parliament is reportedly under house arrest for wanting to negotiate, and the president of iran has admitted on record that retaliatory strikes were carried out by units acting independently. the chain of command is visibly fracturing. the irgc funds itself off the oil industry, not the national defence budget. cap kharg, cap the irgc's revenue. pay delays are already hitting their ranks. and whilst the IRGC are cockroaches, any regime with dried money streams dies eventually. the ceasefire is the cover for the squeeze. while the blockade holds, iran's storage at kharg fills to capacity and the wells have to shut in. shutting in means closing the valves and halting production because there's nowhere for the oil to go, no storage, no pipeline space, no tankers loading. and on old depleted iranian fields, this isn't a pause, it can mean permanent damage. pressure loss, water encroachment, wellbore buildup. some wells never come back to previous rates. some don't come back at all. that's why bessent specifically said "the fragile iranian oil wells will be shut in." the word "fragile" is the tell. this isn't just a temporary revenue pause for the irgc, it's permanent damage to the asset base that funds them. even if iran negotiates the blockade away tomorrow, the production capacity they get back is meaningfully less than what they had on february 27. meanwhile the usa is quietly setting up the next military move. the uss george h.w. bush is steaming east as the third carrier strike group in theatre. the tripoli arg with the 31st meu is already there. the boxer arg with the 11th meu is closing behind it. roughly 5,000 marines on f-35b-capable amphibious platforms. that is the exact force you assemble to take and hold Kharg. my take on what comes next: talks collapse (obviously), the ceasefire expires, and the chess board is set for boots on the ground at kharg seizing the single asset that funds the irgc and holding it as the negotiating instrument. the strike pattern already vouches for this. military targets hit on march 13 and april 7, oil infrastructure deliberately spared both times. this is stage 2. if it goes well the regime really starts to crumble internally and we get to a stage 3 that revolves around their complete removal. i could be wrong but as i've said since feb 28, i don't see how this war doesn't end with the irgc completely dismantled.