Joined September 2014
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π΅ How to Buy the $BTC Bottom:
20%-25% below the 200-week moving average.
All past Bitcoin bear markets have provided at least ONE entry into BTC at 25% below the 200-week MA.
00:00 Intro
00:38 BTC recap. Where it is today
02:47 Historical bear market drop percentages
10:51 Spontanous Rant: Colin's long-term bullish outlook on $1M BTC
11:53 Historical bear market drop percentages, continued
13:36 The 200wk MA & great entries 20%-25% below it.
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Iβm staying far away from the SpaceX IPO.
Maybe Iβll revisit it in a couple years once itβs had a chance to cool off.
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More on why:
x.com/ColinTCrypto/status/20β¦
I fully expect @SpaceX to become a very valuable company, but I don't expect it to go vertical overnight after the IPO.
In fact, I wouldnt be surprised if we see short term excitement culminate in a pretty quick local top, with lower entries than the IPO price possible in the year or couple of years to come.
Patiently waiting.
SpaceX will be HUGE, but not overnight.
The post below pretty much sums it up.
Don't be suckered in by euphoric talk, up front. Never chase the hype. Wait for it to settle and the price will come back to you. $SPCX
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I fully expect @SpaceX to become a very valuable company, but I don't expect it to go vertical overnight after the IPO.
In fact, I wouldnt be surprised if we see short term excitement culminate in a pretty quick local top, with lower entries than the IPO price possible in the year or couple of years to come.
Patiently waiting.
SpaceX will be HUGE, but not overnight.
The post below pretty much sums it up.
Don't be suckered in by euphoric talk, up front. Never chase the hype. Wait for it to settle and the price will come back to you. $SPCX
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I fully expect @SpaceX to become a very valuable company, but I don't expect it to go vertical overnight after the IPO.
In fact, I wouldnt be surprised if we see short term excitement culminate in a pretty quick local top, with lower entries than the IPO price possible in the year or couple of years to come.
Patiently waiting.
SpaceX will be HUGE, but not overnight.
The post below pretty much sums it up.
Don't be suckered in by euphoric talk, up front. Never chase the hype. Wait for it to settle and the price will come back to you. $SPCX
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Whether you call this a rectangle, a channel or a megaphone,
If $DXY breaks upward that would be bad for risk assets. It looks like it may want to.
It would also time with a bubble popping in the overheated stock market and all of these euphoric IPOs and AI euphoria.
I see this all culminating later this year in a meaty correction-- perhaps right around when $BTC's cycle bottom forms.
October? August-November?
Jun 11
I am labeling this as a rectangle but implications are the same
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Short-term S&P500 Outlook = Bearish (hourly handles)
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*candles
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Bitcoin Corollary Bear-Market-Continuation Indicators
It's somewhat easy for me to conclude, with a high degree of certainty, that the next several months have a high probability of being bearish for $BTC (once any short-term relief rally is over) because of:
High inflation readings, coupled with other economic indicators such as the war with Iran *still* not being over, and the Straight of Hormuz *still* remaining closed thereby blocking global oil and trade, and Fed Funds Rate *still* remaining elevated.
BTC thrives in loose monetary-policy environments and we don't have that.
This is a simple recipe for continued bearishness in BTC.
Imo, it's likely the Fed is *forced* to drop Rates suddenly when something finally scares them enough to do so (read: a big enough drop/correction in the stock market-- probably later this year). That can become the catalyst for monetary expansion and thus the beginning of BTC's next journey upward (its next bull market)
BREAKING: May CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, the highest level since April 2023.
Core CPI inflation also rises to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025.
Inflation in the US is officially back above 4% and more than double the Fed's target.
Odds of Fed rate hikes are rising.
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34% left to go of the $BTC bear market? (time-wise)
$BTC Bear Market Progress*
ββββββββββββββββββββ 66%
BTC has been in a bear market since Oct 6, 2025. The typical bear market (from top to bottom) is roughly 1 year long.
That would mean we're already 66% of the way through, *if BTC has another 12-month bear market.
The good news: we could be pretty far along already.
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RT @ColinTCrypto: $BTC Bear Market Progress*
ββββββββββββββββββββ 66%
BTC has been in a bear market since Oct 6, 2025. The typβ¦
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I read the panic news on Zcash ($ZEC) two days ago, did some quick research and I decided the price crash wasn't justified.
I bought a big chunk of ZEC at $316.
Price is now $418 and looks like it will go considerably higher. My target is around $486-$527 (pictured with gray rectangle).
Why didn't I think the price crash was justified?
β’ Zcashβs built-in "turnstile" mechanism verified no additional supply was created.
β’ Bug was fixed and yet people were panicing *after* disclosure. Made no sense.
β’ Protocol is MORE secure than before-- not less.
β’ Furthermore, from a general news standpoint, I have observed that negative news, if not borne out in lasting technical failure, is almost always quickly rebounded from-- within days usually.
Note that I will not be holding ZEC (or any altcoin) long-term right now due to the fact that we are in a crypto *bear* market. As such, it's just a short term trade for me. I'll likely sell within the next few weeks/month as BTC rallies in the short term, dragging alts up with it, as BTC often does.
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Just took profits. Sold all ZEC. Locked in my gains.
34% gain in 2 days.
Happy with that.
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Reasoning:
I didn't like how the price dipped below that diagonal trend line. Very small time frame, but it suggests a possible weakening of momentum. The price very well could continue higher, but I don't need to be a risky degen when I already have a huge profit that I was able to lock in. Thanks for playing.
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Bear markets aren't fun for portfolio value.
This is why I took a little profit this cycle (About 30% of my portfolio, between $75k-$90k [I wish I had done it higher but it's easier than it sounds and it's easy to fumble, and I'm still improving])
and I have to admit it has helped tremendously with my psychology and mental outlook navigating the bear market.
It's interesting that with this balanced approach of profit-taking I don't feel stressed about the drawdown, because part of me wants BTC to head upward (due to my 70% holdings), and part of me wants BTC to go lower (due to my 30% profits) so I can rebuy.
This has balanced things for me much better, internally. I actually highly recommend. I used to sit and watch my portfolio bleed and feel the pain of each drawdown. That part has disappeared for me this cycle. Timing is the tricky part, though and it's taken me 3-4 cycles to pull this off decently.
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This means a Q4 $BTC bottom is even more likely now that BTC didn't have a strong drop immediately (as it stands currently).
Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4.
Just translating this for anyone who isn't tracking.
Q4 has high odds of being the cycle bottom, with a lower low.
I agree with this assessment.
Jun 8
Bitcoin closed the week above the 200W SMA after sweeping the low from February
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However, if BTC suddenly breaks deep below the 200 week MA in the coming week or two then *that* could be the bottom.
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