SpaceX starts trading this Friday. Here's what history says happens next. This is the post-IPO performance of every major tech listing of the last decade. Every name you know. Every name you use. Look at the last column: maximum drawdown in year one. – Facebook: -54% – Snap: -56% – Uber: -68% – Pinterest: -70% – Lyft: -79% – Rivian: -88% – Robinhood: -90% Median first-year drawdown across the entire list: -54%. Average: -55%. Not the speculative junk. The whole class. Including the eventual winners. Zoom eventually rose 142% in year one. It still drew down 40% along the way. Palantir gained 153%. It still fell 53% at one point. CrowdStrike, Datadog, MongoDB. All ended year one higher. All put their holders through a 40 to 67% drawdown first. There has not been a single major tech IPO in a decade that didn't hand you a brutal drawdown in the first twelve months. Not one. Now SpaceX joins the list, at the richest valuation in IPO history. You don't have to buy it today. The IPO is the seller's moment, not the buyer's. Wait for the base.

This is Anton Kreil. A kid from Liverpool, raised by a single mom with no money, who walked into Goldman Sachs at 20 and walked out of Wall Street at 28 with the kind of resume nobody believes is real. His prop book at Goldman grew from $25M to over $400M in four years. Lehman headhunted him in 2004. JP Morgan paid him a fortune to run their global pharma, biotech, and chemicals trading franchises in 2006. He retired in May 2007, months before the entire system blew up. The 16 minutes below is the closest thing I've seen to an actual trader explaining how he thinks. No fluff, no charts, just the framework that made three of the biggest banks on Wall Street fight to hire him.

Robin Williams explaining how golf was invented remains one of the greatest stand-up bits ever recorded

In light of market events, I am making this article free for the next 24 hours. Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value Powerful Trends, Increasing Fragility & Coiled Tension open.substack.com/pub/michae…