China’s Decline: The Numbers Behind the Slowdown
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China’s population has peaked and is now declining — and the pace is accelerating.
2025: Natural decrease of ~3.39 million (births only 7.92 million, lowest in decades; deaths 11.31 million).
Total pop ~1.405–1.413 billion in 2026.
UN medium variant: ~1.398 billion by 2030, ~1.343 billion by 2040.
Rhodium Group: ~60 million loss this decade alone (to 2035), with annual decline widening to ~7.6 million by 2035.
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This is the long shadow of the one-child policy (1980–2015/16).
Official claim: Prevented ~400 million births.
Working-age population (15–64) peaked ~2014–2015 near 1 billion.
Now ~987 million (2025) and falling. Projected to drop well over 100 million by 2040 (to ~880 million), shrinking ~1% per year later in the period.
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Fertility is in freefall.
TFR below 1.0 — among the world’s lowest.
Young people facing “Bai Lan” (摆烂 / “let it rot”) culture: disillusionment, low consumption, delayed/no marriage or kids due to costs, competition (neijuan), housing, and uncertain futures.
This isn’t just culture — it’s a rational response to economics demographics. It feeds back into even fewer future births.
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