Since April, Web3 has spent three days without a major crypto exploit. Quite expectable for CORE3 users who got their hands on the risk data.
As it happens, we released the 1,463-project Probability of Loss (PoL) dataset the same week Drift collapsed. Frankly, the probabilities for the next collapses were already in it.
Drift Protocol, PoL 47 (CCC). $285M. The attackers posed as a trading firm, met the team at conferences, and even deposited over $1M of their own capital just to drain 285x more using compromised multisig. Operational gaps.
KelpDAO, PoL 46 (CCC). Another $292M. Their bridge used a 1-of-1 verifier. Attackers fed the DVN a forged message, and the bridge minted $292M of unbacked rsETH. Dependency risk.
Humanity Protocol, PoL 80 (D). $30M . They used multisig 3-of-5 while having three of them on one laptop. Operational gaps compounded with security.
THORChain, PoL 47 (CCC). $11M. The leading theory points to GG20, the threshold signature scheme securing its vaults: a 2020-era cryptographic library with critical flaws published back in 2023. Old code that nobody re-validated against known attacks. On-chain security.
What the spring cases share is that the dominant exploit path of 2026 was key compromise. Get the keys off a founder's laptop, then mint or extract value. The best remediation is documented key storage, rotation, and signing policies, for example, under CCSS.
Public data flagged the gaps that enabled those exploits. We did not know when. Probability of Loss measures, well, the probability of loss, not the date of loss.
āļøWhich projects will be next to learn how to store keys or audit deprecated infrastructure? The vigilant researcher will find answers in the data.
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core3.io dataset also covers smaller projects that already suffered an incident, or still have the chance to: Verus, Haedal, LAB, RAVE, and 1,400 more.
Check their risks, but don't get too bored.