Sharing expertise from working @ multiple $10B public manufacturing companies to pre-IPO tech startup

Joined May 2023
298 Photos and videos
Access controls in companies has never been more important Codex and Claude will get into files Folks never even knew they had
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37% of indirect transactions bypass preferred suppliers entirely. That number hasn't budged in years. CFOs are now treating off-contract spend reduction as an earnings lever, targeting 15-25% cuts in facilities, office supplies, and small IT without slashing overall budgets
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Panama Canal drought restrictions are back. Carriers are flagging mid to high teens cost inflation on Asia-US East Coast all-water routes for 2H26. If your freight budget built in 20-30% for surcharges, that buffer is probably not enough.
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It’s not just your IT team
happens to the best of us
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Chemical turnaround budgets up 18% for late 2026. Before anyone calls that a capex recovery, most of the increase is inflation absorbed into scope. Contractor balance sheets are stressed in places. The work will get done, just by fewer, bigger firms
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More companies should actually do an version of supplier health checks
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If the models are similar, most companies will choose the better cost version
BOOM *OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating Costly War For Users With Anthropic -- WSJ
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When there’s a lot of excitement in capex expansion in a commodity area, the spreadsheet math can multiply by 2 and the time it takes gets longer and longer to complete. Numbers get real mid project
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Scope creep is a real thing: thespendledger.com/articles/…

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Whether or not you agree this will be a big impact on jobs, it will have some and it will also be negotiating leverage
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Tech FP&As time to shine!!
Our Anthropic bill is about to jump from $400K → $1.4M/yr. Not because usage exploded, but because we're about to cross 150 seats. Past 150 seats you're forced into Enterprise tier. Seats stop including any usage, every token bills at standard API rates. At our current run rate that's 3.5x overnight. Unfiltered thoughts on AI spend: 1. We should spend tokens to grow as aggressively as possible. But most people (me included) aren't conscious of what they're spending. 2. Visibility comes first. People see their personal number and they're shocked. I accidentally spent $4,000 in 3 days in Claude Code. 3. For engineering the spend is clearly worth it. Pay for the best model, it saves more than it costs. 4. For a lot of other roles it's questionable. Apps nobody uses, skills someone already built. No ROI. 5. Spend limits are coming. We already require approval for more tokens on our support team. The era of token-maxxing is coming to an end.
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Coincidence? I dont think so
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Get ahead of these. This is not the year to be caught off guard with SaaS renewals. The expectation is that procurement teams are keeping a close eye on expirations, conversations about need vs. overlap, and where they can be cancelled or reduced.
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Smart. Those that don't will be paying way more for a dashboard/slide tweak than they realize
*MICROSOFT RESTRICTS CLAUDE FABLE FOR EMPLOYEES: THE VERGE
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Washington has now said out loud that it accepts consumer price impacts as the cost of industrial policy on China tariffs Finance teams modeling this as a one-quarter materials hit are carrying the wrong assumption into 2H26
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