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MMA · UFC DFS · MUHAMMAD vs BONFIM · 12-FIGHT DRAFTKINGS SLATE UFC DFS — The Muhammad vs Bonfim Slate, Decoded A wide-favorite card that looks chalky on the surface and plays anything but. Here's where the real finish equity is, which favorites to anchor, the leverage hiding under 20% ownership, and how we're building it on DraftKings. By Courtedge Research·Core plays · leverage · fades · DK build rules·Powered by Anthropic Build alongside this: the card is loaded in the MMA DK Lab — pick 6, $50K, full-card Monte Carlo with moneylines, finish rates, and projected rounds on every fighter. The read on this card The moneylines are wide — six fighters sit at -315 or shorter — but wide favorites don't automatically mean safe DFS. In MMA, what wins you money isn't picking winners, it's finishes: DraftKings rewards a stoppage far more than a decision. So the question on a chalk-heavy slate like this isn't "who wins," it's "who wins early, and who's underpriced or under-owned relative to that finish equity." The highest finishing probabilities on the board: Alessandro Costa (67%), Iwo Baraniewski (66%), Marcus McGhee (49%), Jeisla Chaves & Brendan Allen (43%), Fares Ziam (31%). That list — not the moneyline list — is where lineups are won. Below the line: the core, the leverage, the fades, and our DraftKings build rules. 🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM Unlock the full UFC slate breakdown Core plays, the leverage under 20% ownership, the fades, the finish-equity board, and our DraftKings build rules for cash and GPP. What you get with CourtEdge Premium ✅ All premium picks daily — every result published, wins and losses ✅ Every lineup lab — MMA, MLB DK, PGA DK, NBA ✅ Live EV board — quantile Monte Carlo edge sheet ✅ Every premium write-up — including this one Subscribe with Stripe → start now Monthly $29 · Lifetime $249.99 · Secured by Stripe · Card-on-file with cardholder name · Cancel anytime from your account Already a member? Sign in: Unlock article See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picksMMA · UFC DFS · MUHAMMAD vs BONFIM · 12-FIGHT DRAFTKINGS SLATE UFC DFS — The Muhammad vs Bonfim Slate, Decoded A wide-favorite card that looks chalky on the surface and plays anything but. Here's where the real finish equity is, which favorites to anchor, the leverage hiding under 20% ownership, and how we're building it on DraftKings. By Courtedge Research·Core plays · leverage · fades · DK build rules·Powered by Anthropic Build alongside this: the card is loaded in the MMA DK Lab — pick 6, $50K, full-card Monte Carlo with moneylines, finish rates, and projected rounds on every fighter. The read on this card The moneylines are wide — six fighters sit at -315 or shorter — but wide favorites don't automatically mean safe DFS. In MMA, what wins you money isn't picking winners, it's finishes: DraftKings rewards a stoppage far more than a decision. So the question on a chalk-heavy slate like this isn't "who wins," it's "who wins early, and who's underpriced or under-owned relative to that finish equity." The highest finishing probabilities on the board: Alessandro Costa (67%), Iwo Baraniewski (66%), Marcus McGhee (49%), Jeisla Chaves & Brendan Allen (43%), Fares Ziam (31%). That list — not the moneyline list — is where lineups are won. Below the line: the core, the leverage, the fades, and our DraftKings build rules. 🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM Unlock the full UFC slate breakdown Core plays, the leverage under 20% ownership, the fades, the finish-equity board, and our DraftKings build rules for cash and GPP. What you get with CourtEdge Premium ✅ All premium picks daily — every result published, wins and losses ✅ Every lineup lab — MMA, MLB DK, PGA DK, NBA ✅ Live EV board — quantile Monte Carlo edge sheet ✅ Every premium write-up — including this one Subscribe with Stripe → start now Monthly $29 · Lifetime $249.99 · Secured by Stripe · Card-on-file with cardholder name · Cancel anytime from your account Already a member? Sign in: Unlock article See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picks

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MLB · DK MAIN SLATE · SATURDAY 6/13/2026 · 8 GAMES · 4:05 PM ET MLB Main 6/13 — The Bachar Smash Spot, Two Aces, and the Stacks Nobody's On An 8-game afternoon main with real pitching at the top, the worst-projected starter on the board begging to be attacked, and the sharpest leverage hiding in three sub-5% stacks while the field crowds onto Arizona. By Courtedge Research·Lineups lock 4:05 PM ET · check confirmed lineups before lock·Powered by Anthropic Build alongside this: the slate is loaded in the MLB DK Lab — Classic Main, 159 players, 8 games, LineStar projections ownership. Quick Start: Cash (GiantSquid floor) · Single Entry · GPP 150-max. The shape of the slate Three things define this 8-gamer: The aces are live. Yamamoto, deGrom, and Skubal all draw weak opposing lineups (each opponent implied for 3.3 runs or fewer). When the top of the pitching board is this safe, you can pay up with confidence and find your value in the bats. There's a get-right spot on the mound — for the offense facing it. One starter projects for barely a third of what the aces do. The stack across from him is the highest-leverage offensive play on the slate. The field is funneling onto one stack. Arizona's bats are the chalk — and that's where your edge comes from going the other way. Below the line: the pitcher tiers, the top team totals, the smash spot, the three leverage stacks, the chalk to fade, and cap-legal GiantSquid 5/2/1 builds. 🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM Unlock tonight's MLB card Pitcher tiers, the top team totals, the smash-spot stack, three sub-5% leverage stacks, the chalk fades, and cap-legal GiantSquid 5/2/1 builds. What you get with CourtEdge Premium ✅ All premium picks daily — every result published, wins and losses ✅ Every lineup lab — MLB DK, PGA DK, NBA, MMA ✅ Live EV board — quantile Monte Carlo edge sheet ✅ Every premium write-up — including this one Subscribe with Stripe → start now Monthly $29 · Lifetime $249.99 · Secured by Stripe · Card-on-file with cardholder name · Cancel anytime from your account Already a member? Sign in: Unlock article See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picks

PGA · R3 SHOWDOWN · RBC CANADIAN OPEN · SATURDAY 6/13/2026 RBC Canadian Open R3 Showdown — The Moving Day Playbook The 36-hole leader costs $6,900. Saturday gusts to 50 km/h. And two elite build paths — Moklovin and GiantSquid — disagree about what to do with all of it. Six flex, no Captain, $50K. By Courtedge Research·Published Friday night · Tee-time & weather update before Saturday lock·Powered by Anthropic Updated with official tee times DK IDs: R3 tee sheet is in (single tee, 7:15 AM–1:45 PM ET — full sheet below) and every golfer is matched to the official DraftKings export. The PGA DK Lab boots straight into R3 Showdown — six flex (RBC Canadian Open): all 75 made-cut golfers, projections, Occupy overlay, course fit, tee-time waves, and both Moklovin pattern presets wired. Hit Reload slate and you're building. First, the receipts from Friday's playbook Thursday night we told you R2 showdown was about forced aggression, anonymous steam, and finished-early bombers. Friday's board graded it out: Jesper Svensson (the "27% steam nobody can name") shot 65 and sits T2. The purest leverage call on the card cashed at near-zero ownership. Collin Morikawa (forced aggression) fired -5 Friday — exactly the must-birdie round the structure predicted — and made the weekend with room to spare. Taylor Pendrith posted -3, the quiet-Canadian core call. Wyndham Clark added -2. Honesty column: Grillo and Theegala each managed only -1 — fine, not slate-winning. We publish both sides. The Saturday setup: three things break this slate open 1. The leader is priced like a punt. Ben James leads the national open at -10 after a Friday 63, his win odds steamed from 50000 to 800 — and DraftKings left him at $6,900, fifty-first on the salary board. Numbers like this get fixed by Sunday. They don't exist twice in one weekend. 2. The wind is real this time. Environment Canada's Friday-night forecast for Caledon: west wind 30 km/h gusting to 50 (≈19 mph, gusts 31), 40% morning showers, thunderstorm risk. TPC Toronto's scoring holes — the reachable 6th, the gettable 13th, both par-5 bookends — play very differently in a two-club gust. Carry distance and ball-flight control jump the queue ahead of putting streaks. 3. Moving day breaks habits. The field rosters the leaderboard. But R3 showdown only scores Saturday's golf, and the guys at -4 to -6 with elite Saturday projections are priced two tiers below the names directly above them on the board. ⏰ R3 tee times are posted (one tee, 7:15 AM – 1:45 PM ET) Single-tee restart Saturday. The leaders go last — directly into the building afternoon wind. Full sheet (source: Golf Channel, Friday night): Time (ET)GroupTime (ET)Group7:15Sanderson10:30Clanton · van Rooyen7:20Pavon · Savoie10:45M. Fitzpatrick · Yellamaraju7:30McCarthy · Griffin10:55Tosti · Morikawa7:40Finau · Highsmith11:05Yu · Blanchet7:50J. Paul · Ryder11:15Homa · A. Fitzpatrick8:00Shipley · Neergaard-Petersen11:25Mouw · Phillips8:10Reitan · Kohles11:35Roy · McGreevy8:25Whaley · N. Taylor11:50Ghim · Fishburn8:35Hirata · Ewart12:00Keefer · Eckroat8:45A. Svensson · Hossler12:10MacIntyre · Lowry8:55*Bridgeman · Moore12:20Theegala · Pendrith9:05Kanaya · Hovland12:30Hall · Anderson9:15Peterson · Silverman12:40Grillo · Potgieter9:25Nakajima · Matthews (a)12:55Garnett · Stanger9:40Hadwin · Thorbjornsen1:05Fleetwood · Cauley9:50Skinns · Bezuidenhout1:15Fox · Koepka10:00Horschel · Castillo1:25J. Svensson · Mitchell10:10Wu · Thompson1:35Suber · Li10:20Clark · Kim1:45B. James · Burns *Golf Channel's published table skipped the 8:55 slot — Bridgeman/Moore confirmed there via SaberSim's tee-time feed. Below the paywall: the full key-play board, the ownership traps, the value sheet, what this tee sheet does to the wind math, and seven sim-validated six-flex builds across three named paths — Moklovin SE, Moklovin 150-max, and GiantSquid — plus the exact lab workflow to mass-build 200–1,500 lineups and sim them yourself. 🔒 COURTEDGE PREMIUM Unlock the Moving Day playbook Seven key plays, eight fades with reasons, the CE value board, and seven cap-checked builds across Moklovin & GiantSquid paths — plus the Saturday morning weather update before lock. What you get with CourtEdge Premium ✅ All premium picks daily — every result published, wins and losses ✅ Every lineup lab — MLB DK, PGA DK, NBA, MMA — Moklovin-style builds ✅ Live EV board — quantile Monte Carlo edge sheet, all sportsbooks ✅ Every premium write-up — including this one Subscribe with Stripe → start now Monthly $29 · Lifetime $249.99 · Secured by Stripe · Card-on-file with cardholder name · Cancel anytime from your account Already a member? Sign in: Unlock article See live picks & track record at courtedge.net/picks Courtedge does not accept wagers. This article is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I got tired of DFS "optimizers" that are just spreadsheets with a salary cap. So we built different: ⚙️ One-click builds that run a full Monte Carlo sim — ranked by top-1% win equity, not raw projection 📊 20,000-run tournament sims (we published the leader's real win odds mid-round today — it was 5%) 🦈 Sharp construction rules enforced in code: stack shapes, salary bands, ownership anchors 🧾 Every pick timestamped, graded, and public — wins AND losses $29/mo. Built by one person who actually plays. courtedge.net 🏆 FIRST EVER SHOWDOWN WIN. One week after launch. I got tired of DFS "optimizers" that are really just spreadsheets with a salary cap. So I built something different. ⚙️ Every slate is engineered from the game level up. 📊 We simulate game environments, player-vs-player matchups, team correlations, ownership dynamics, and tournament outcomes to keep projections consistent across the entire slate. 🎯 Lineups are ranked by Top 1% finish equity—not just raw fantasy points. 🦈 Sharp construction rules enforced in code: • Stack structures • Salary allocation ranges • Ownership leverage • Correlation rules 📈 20,000-run tournament simulations. 🧾 Every pick is timestamped, graded, and public. Wins and losses. No cherry-picking. 🏆 First showdown winner after one week live. $29/month. Built by one person who actually plays DFS. courtedge.net

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We simmed the RBC Canadian Open weekend 20,000 times. The 36-hole leader wins just 5% of them. The guy two back: 13%. Full win/top-10 tables, the cut bubble, and Saturday leverage 👇 courtedge.net/articles/pga-r… #PGADFS #RBCCanadianOpen #DraftKings #GolfBetting

Update: the market moved HALF A RUN onto the stack we published at 2PM. Late steam report — the 9.1 team total, 3 rain games, and a −220 favorite at 2% ownership 👇 courtedge.net/articles/mlb-m… #MLBDFS #DraftKings #GPP