Should you invest in
#Altcoins now or wait for lower?
From a sentiment perspective, it's already perfect timing. Interest is gone, KOLs are pivoting to AI, and the market is dominated by fear and depression.
But what about prices? Is this already a 'fair' market value?
While I think that the market as a whole has room to fall further to reach equilibrium and volume nodes, individually, some altcoins are already in HTF demand zones, trading at or slightly below their 2022 bear market bottoms.
So, is this a good time to invest?
From a risk-reward potential, yes.
At least, it's much better than 6 months ago.
Does this mean that this is the bottom and prices won't fall further?
No.
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We gotta remind ourselves which industry we're in.
This isn't the multi-trillion stock market.
Crypto is a very, very small industry.
Market cap is an illusion.
The real liquidity inflow is much smaller than the market capitalization of certain coins might suggest.
No matter how "big" a certain project might seem, the industry as a whole is so fragile that a single button click of a big player can immediately wipe out positions (something I've seen plenty of times since 2017).
Keeping this in mind, the only thing that you can truly control is:
How much are you truly willing to risk?
When investing in a single altcoin, always start with the mindset that you might lose it all: -100% of your initial investment.
That's your defined risk.
That's your baseline.
(it really helps with mindset and expectations)
From there, you could ask yourself what the potential upside could be from current levels?
3X, 5X, 10X, 20X ?
It's all speculation.
It's out of your and my control.
But before making any investment, we've got to extrapolate some kind of potential targets (based on data) to formulate a business case.
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So, you end up with two questions:
1) Is risking all of my initial worth the potential reward?
2) Am I really ok potentially losing all of my initial investment?
If you can't clearly answer those two questions, you're either:
a) risking too much of your net worth
or
b) don't have a clear business case -> gambling
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TL;DR
The only thing that you can truly control in this industry is your downside. How much are you willing to put on the line for potential upside?
It should be a figure that still lets you sleep calmly at night without anxiety.
In terms of "the best opportunities", we can consider that prices are already down heavily (discount zones), and it's always better to buy a discount than a premium.
The more skilled you are at TA and market dynamics, and the more experience you have, the more precise you can define your zone of 'optimal' entry and timing.
But essentially, it's all about defining your risk, buying discounts, and selling premiums.
Personally, I'm still waiting to see how PA develops and am not rushing anything yet.