Data-driven crypto market insights and Bitcoin analysis | Not financial advice

Joined January 2023
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Not a bad area to accumulate some $BTC for the long-term bag, imo There’s solid technical confluence here. Just gotta accept the risk that it might drop lower after an initial bounce (2022 bear market style). But with a min. 5-year mindset, these are already good discounts.
I have almost zero doubt that $BTC will make a new ATH in the next 5 years. Prices below $60K are a great opportunity to go discount shopping and accumulate long-term spot bags. Regarding #Altcoins, I'd be a bit more careful. Many 'crypto' projects will never recover.
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Want to see $BTC holding above the range highs for an attempt to attack the highs at ~$79K. However, it's worth noting that the $98K aVWAP is a strong opponent to push past.
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People are leaving the crypto industry. KOLs are pivoting to AI. #Altcoins are losing their 2022 bear market support levels. Do you think crypto is cooked for good?
35% Yes, it's over mate!
14% 50/50
10% It never even began lol
40% Bottom signal!
181 votes • Final results
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Should you invest in #Altcoins now or wait for lower? From a sentiment perspective, it's already perfect timing. Interest is gone, KOLs are pivoting to AI, and the market is dominated by fear and depression. But what about prices? Is this already a 'fair' market value? While I think that the market as a whole has room to fall further to reach equilibrium and volume nodes, individually, some altcoins are already in HTF demand zones, trading at or slightly below their 2022 bear market bottoms. So, is this a good time to invest? From a risk-reward potential, yes. At least, it's much better than 6 months ago. Does this mean that this is the bottom and prices won't fall further? No. ---------------------------- We gotta remind ourselves which industry we're in. This isn't the multi-trillion stock market. Crypto is a very, very small industry. Market cap is an illusion. The real liquidity inflow is much smaller than the market capitalization of certain coins might suggest. No matter how "big" a certain project might seem, the industry as a whole is so fragile that a single button click of a big player can immediately wipe out positions (something I've seen plenty of times since 2017). Keeping this in mind, the only thing that you can truly control is: How much are you truly willing to risk? When investing in a single altcoin, always start with the mindset that you might lose it all: -100% of your initial investment. That's your defined risk. That's your baseline. (it really helps with mindset and expectations) From there, you could ask yourself what the potential upside could be from current levels? 3X, 5X, 10X, 20X ? It's all speculation. It's out of your and my control. But before making any investment, we've got to extrapolate some kind of potential targets (based on data) to formulate a business case. ------------------------ So, you end up with two questions: 1) Is risking all of my initial worth the potential reward? 2) Am I really ok potentially losing all of my initial investment? If you can't clearly answer those two questions, you're either: a) risking too much of your net worth or b) don't have a clear business case -> gambling ---------------- TL;DR The only thing that you can truly control in this industry is your downside. How much are you willing to put on the line for potential upside? It should be a figure that still lets you sleep calmly at night without anxiety. In terms of "the best opportunities", we can consider that prices are already down heavily (discount zones), and it's always better to buy a discount than a premium. The more skilled you are at TA and market dynamics, and the more experience you have, the more precise you can define your zone of 'optimal' entry and timing. But essentially, it's all about defining your risk, buying discounts, and selling premiums. Personally, I'm still waiting to see how PA develops and am not rushing anything yet.
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I hope this post helps a few of you to understand how I think about investing in this industry. It's not primarily about projecting a potential target, but also, and more importantly, about defined risk.
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Patric H. | CryptelligenceX retweeted
Seriously this, if people were sooo worried about Quantum Computing hacking Bitcoin, then why in the world would anybody keep even 1 cent in their bank accounts right now?! Make it make sense. You think Quantum can hack Bitcoin's SHA-256 hashing algorithm but not your Chase or Bank of America online banking password? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
funny thing is, if quantum computers were a near-term threat, Bitcoin would be the last thing to worry about every bank account would get hacked immediately lol
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I'd diversify the portfolio with the majority in $BTC. Never know what's gonna happen, even with big altcoin projects (it's all very fragile). But they can provide big upside, so buying discounts with a small portion of the portfolio could be very beneficial in terms of ROI
Feb 17
Still its my big question if BTC bottomed at $40K or $#30K, that time its better to buy BTC, or big cap altcoins like ETH, BNB, XRP?
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$BTC looks very good in the $30Ks. 1) all-time VWAP on Coinbase and Binance 2) above wave 1 of the bull run 3) FIB 0.618 on log chart 4) ~70% discount Would be a nice opportunity to max buy.
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Life is better when nobody knows what you're doing. Move in silence. Build in private. Let the results speak for you.
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some of the OG crypto accounts and KOLs completely stopped posting after 10/10/2025 seems like they really wiped out the whole industry with that flash crash
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For $BTC shorts, I'm paying close attention to two key levels: 1) the VWAP from the January high 2) the VAL FIB 0.618 at $81.5K On the downside, $56K is my next level of interest.
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It's been a very tough cycle for altcoin investors. Quick narrative shifts and memecoin pump-and-dump dominated the crypto industry. So, what's next? Where are #Altcoins heading? 👇
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I guess that will happen sooner or later, as many crypto exchanges cannot sustain operations amid declining liquidity. The big question is... which ones
We need an exchange or 3 to fail to hit bottom
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vibes were much better when prices were trending up... how are we gonna survive the next 9 months? 🥲
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Markets bottom when the crowd panic-sells so that whales can load up their bags with volume. That happens at a price most consider "unrealistic", "delusional", "will never happen again". It's called the max pain price. What do you think will be that price for $BTC? And why?
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Patric H. | CryptelligenceX retweeted
I got 3 cycles so far under my belt and the reason why I fear for many people's portfolios even if the market does bounce back is the following: It is much easier for founders to built and hype NEW altcoins than to revive old ones. Altcoin charts like OTHERS/TOTAL3 etc don't show this. So many are in a scenario where the chart eventually will look like altcoins are pumping or moving sideways. But in reality one altcoin gets replaced by the other. Altcoin X with $500m market cap simply dies and gets replaced by altcoin Y with $500m market cap. Charts that are a global representation of alts (OTHERS for example) will stay the same. But in reality your portfolio looks much more grim. This isn't an "altcoins are terrible" problem. It's a "altcoins going into a new cycle" problem. While this cycle has been lackluster for many, in general altcoins have and can still produce good returns in a cycle when "it's their time". So at some moments they have effectively been and can be good investments. Just not when the music stops anymore. That's when the new and hot takes over. There are exceptions ofcourse. Mostly those that reach into LARGE cap status by the end of a cycle maintain some relevance and ability to bounce back. But those that never made it that far? They usually die out and the founders themselves actually move on. Even worse, they are heavily incentivized to do so. It pays off more for them. It's a painful truth for those that haven't derisked when the cycle was at risk to coming to an end. The markets will bounce. But many portfolios will not.
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It’s wild to see core infrastructure projects trading below their 2022 bear-market lows. Makes you wonder if this was just a liquidity grab with the worst already behind us, or if we're heading into a full industry shakeout as projects run out of operational funds? (example)
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I wonder why banks never talk about this. 🤭 Bitcoin's cryptography is far ahead of that of banks. Before the Bitcoin network gets hacked, all banks will already be hacked.
Quantum computing is a bigger threat to banks than Bitcoin
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$BTC needs to reclaim $83K to flip the trend. Any pump below keeps the downtrend intact. After such a violent dump, a ranging market structure is likely to trap traders. Sometimes, the best thing to do is to do nothing.
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