GK Daily Brief: Stagflation Is Live. Beijing Might Fix Half Of It. ⚡
The Fed is trapped. China might have the exit?
→ PPI 6.0% YoY — nearly triple expectations. Core PPI double estimates. CPI 3.8% yesterday, PPI 6.0% today. Real wages negative. Inflation pass-through is structural. The Fed cannot cut or hike without breaking something. Feels trapped.
→ China agreed to oppose Hormuz tolls — first joint US-China signal on the war. If Hormuz reopens as a Beijing summit outcome, energy prices collapse, CPI reverses, Fed cuts return. Markets haven't priced this yet. Win win.
→ Trump landed in Beijing with Jensen Huang on Air Force One alongside Musk, Cook, Fink. NVDA hit all-time high at $5.5 Trillion. China's $50B AI chip market on the table. Nvidia reports tonight while its CEO negotiates chip access in real time
→ Tokenized Treasuries hit $15 billion — near zero 18 months ago. Institutional capital building on-chain yield quietly while everyone watches the inflation print. Tokenization doesn't need a bull market. It needs rate-bearing assets and blockchain rails
→ Powell's term ends Friday. Warsh inherits 3.8% CPI, 6.0% PPI, a war, and zero cuts priced. His first press conference is the most important Fed moment in years
Question: If China and the US jointly reopen Hormuz, inflation reverses, the Fed cuts, and Warsh turns dovish what does that do to every asset class simultaneously?