A deep dive on Bitcoin's price structure.
If you’ve been following my recent
$BTC updates, you can tell that my bias has been leaning bearish.
More accurately, it’s not “bearish forever,” but I do believe that sooner or later Bitcoin will still print a new low before it can properly kick off the next leg higher.
Can it go straight up from here? Sure, it’s possible, but in my view, it’s unlikely.
Here are the key points I’m watching:
- The Drop vs The Rebound
You always have to measure the size of the rebound against the size of the dump.
If the selloff is big, but the bounce is small, it tells you that the downside wasn’t met with equal buying interest.
That usually means either there’s no one eager to absorb the sell pressure, or people are simply too pessimistic to buy the dip.
We could see that in past bottoms, the rebound is much more equal relative to the drop.
That shows how the market is optimistic in buying the dip, hence pushing the prices to a newer high much quicker.
- Lower low structure
It’s very rare for a sharp dump to get fully absorbed and then price just teleports back to the previous high.
Historically, Bitcoin’s major bottoms tend to form with a fresh lower low, at a point where most people have already given up on the idea.
Right now,
$BTC has already dropped a lot, but the rebound so far doesn’t match the magnitude of the move down, in fact, it is the weakest rebound we've seen since the bull run started.
That’s why I’m still skeptical in the short term, but I still believe we’ll see a new ATH sometime in 2026.