Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish. I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64 I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82 I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between: Bitcoin: $16,558.55 Ethereum: $1,196.79 I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k. This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021. Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits. The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/crypto…

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear. From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

Bitcoin's 2026 bear market performance is now closest to the first bear market in 2014. The unification zone (where all bear markets have lined up) starts in just 10 days, which means Bitcoin would need to be at least 50k by June 18th. Everything's right on track.

No closes yet, but it seems very likely that Bitcoin locks in a break below the First Low Bear Band, triggering a move to the Second Low Band at 44.5k. The cycle bottom target here is on the lower end of my projections at 28.5k. I am being very patient for the right cycle low conditions, I am not afraid of "missing out". Especially as returns diminish and the possibility of a lackluster cycle (which most people find impossible) looms, it is more important than ever to wait for the best time to invest. I think plenty of people will "call" the cycle bottom this go around, because if you do it at every low, eventually you'll be right. Was buying altcoins at their cycle bottom impressive last cycle? For most... not at all. The big "kicker" will be if Bitcoin only reaches... or doesn't reach, ATHs next cycle. It's the invincible twist, because almost no crypto influencer has a plan for a complete cycle flop. "So what will you do then, CryptoCon?" At this point, I am very uninterested in buying Altcoins in the upcoming cycle. I think they are being challenged as a viable sector, like NFTs. I do think Bitcoin still has potential. Even a run from low prices to near previous ATHs is a good return. I also believe this would be temporary. And once the losers have been obliterated, a select few crypto will rise to maturity to continue more modest growth. Diversifying seems smart. Stocks, Index Funds, and ETFs have become more interesting. I'm still waiting for good buying opportunities there too, before I allocate. According to the Quartercent Cycles Theory, a major pause/recession is not projected until 2034, making it a great candidate for diversification.

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up. If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss. Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year. I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table. For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.

The bear flag has now broken to the downside! That means it's time to start looking at lower prices that typically come very quickly after that happens. The next support on the Volume Profile is 38k - 43k. This is also the cycle bottom target of Realized Market Cap and the Golden Ratio Multiplier. But... the volume there is relatively thin, much more so than our current price. The next strongest block after that is 25k - 30k. This is the bottom target of the Magic Bands and Bear Bands. 42k seems very likely as the next major stop, which will probably take some time. Expect that people will scream that the bottom is in on the next drop, as they have for the past two. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The Halving Cycles Theory, which remains perfectly on track, says not until the end of the year.

I'll throw my 2 cents in on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale... The amount sold compared to what Strategy holds is extremely small; most people know this. The more interesting implication is the psychological shift from "I will never sell" to "I will sell just a little bit." And why? To pay the bills (dividends), which Michael has a lot of. Religion has always been a big driver of crypto prices. The "Never sell your bitcoin, always buy, escape the financial system, supercycle, world adoption." And cracks are forming in it even from the most fervent believers. There have been quite a few prolific people announcing being "done" with Bitcoin recently as well. So then, reverse psychology, "This is a buy signal, right?" That's what most people are led to think. Instead, I think it shows true weakness. Investors are jumping ship. Other things have become much more attractive (AI-related stocks). Crypto has been the #1 money maker for a decade, and that's being challenged. There are cycles even in what makes the most money. What comes of this? Potentially a failed Bitcoin cycle (no new ATHs), or lower cycle bottom prices than most people expect. Some people project that a supercycle will end diminishing returns; I believe it will be a failed cycle instead. Not death... just a rebalancing. Crypto/Bitcoin influencers won't say these things because it hurts the business. You get attention by telling people that a supercycle is coming and that prices will go up. I'd prefer to share my honest thoughts. I'm an investor, and I want to put my money where it will work the best, wherever that is. Nothing's looking interesting at the moment.

Ahhh, a clean retest of the bottom of the bear flag. This is also the likely place for it to finally break to the downside, since we've completed the second major retest of the top. Sentiment is in the gutter, but that's not going to stop price from going where it needs to. Longest bear flag since November 2021, at 110 days.

Looking strictly at the proportion of this bear market to others, it's clear people are way too desperate to turn this into a buying opportunity. "But... how can the Halving Cycles Theory, which has become popular now, continue to repeat if everyone knows about it?" By hiding in plain sight using narratives (recession, macro, super cycle, business cycle), strange exact timing, and prices no one would expect. Another possibility almost no one in crypto considers is... what if Bitcoin has a failed cycle? By that I mean, it doesn't make new ATHs. I do think that could happen, especially as returns continue to diminish. This could look like buying Altcoins last cycle. I do believe eventually, Bitcoin would recover, and new ATHs would resume. We've seen behavior like this from Gold after the 1980s gold rush, which preceded a 30-year bear market. Not saying that's what's coming for BTC, the cycles are much shorter. "CryptoCon.... that's way too bearish!" Maybe... but I think it's worth considering. Crypto attention has been heavily fading since 2021. There are even bigger cycles at play than Bitcoin's. Still sitting fully in cash from 112k BTC and keeping my options open.

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k. We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms. This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real answer is probably something in between.

A simple observation for the cycle bottom using the TRIX indicator on the Monthly. Good accuracy, just waiting on a crossover.

Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom. But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel. Crosses into low transaction volume have been pretty accurate for pinning the cycle bottom, usually within one month. A lot of data is in a similar position. Close, but not quite there.

The Bear Flag active since early February is now tied for the longest running since November 2021 at 100 days. Price is rejecting from the top of the flag. Again, the flag typically breaks down after the second major retest of the top, which is now complete. The average drop after a bear flag breakdown is about 30%, but has been as low as 16% and as high as 40%. A 30% correction from the current bear flag bottom would take Bitcoin to $50,000.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (people holding for 1 year or more) are moving in the direction we want. The metric is about 60% way to high long-term holder interest/maximum long-term holder stockpiling (blue). The more interested they get in buying, the more interested I get. There's still plenty of ground to cover!

It's just your average Bear Market May on Logarithmic MVRV.