Unfortunately $BTC usually fills these wicks and there are some retests lower. With that said, this is an abnormal liquidation event and we might not retest those lows, similar to March 2020. If we do grind down a bit (which I expect), assume alt prices also go another -20% imo

Latest 'Capital Wars' Substack capitalwars.substack.com/p/a…

HH spending remains the primary driver of the US economy, and timely data shows it keeps on trucking even as wage growth softens. Keeping it going requires a continued push higher in asset prices, which is likely on track thanks to expansionary policy ahead. Thread.

Considering the reasonable view two months ago was $2t doge cuts and austerity and now we’re looking at this coming through you kind of have to change your view completely. If you don’t it means you either misread things in February or Misreading things now. All we can do is react to what occurs and what is priced in relatively. @BobEUnlimited is the master of showing this in action and describing this process fyi

Party on, Garth! This policy mix plus the blowout deficit plans is pretty stimulative ahead. The 90d timeframe further incentivizes pull forward of demand. And a lot of real money bearish likely to reinforce it and need to catch up. A lot like the Sept 24 dynamic I suspect, big unexpected easing overwhelms the fundamentals pricing.

Stocks > Bonds Cash > Bonds USD Down Gold Up The “Party On, Garth” trade

Oh boy, and the #btc weekly MACD cross...😬

The most important development.

BUDGET BLOWOUT? The initial Congressional budget plan puts US spending at an 8% deficit. So much for austerity or belt tightening. Everyone is solving for midterms. The political incentives for whomever is in power is spend, spend, spend and print, print, print. The ten year rate is moving higher — that won’t help Main Street mortgages or the Prime Rate small businesses fund off of. What does it mean for the stock market though? Bullish. Plus ca change…

I will see a post saying “tag the best trading accounts” or “who caught this rally best? tag them below” I’ll think to myself: “lol, I didn’t even get tagged once?” anyone that’s been paying attention the past several months can attest, there are few better candidates than I—this is not arrogance; it’s just plain fact. similarly, I will not see the names of peers on this app that are just as, or even more-so, deserving of a shout either it’s confusing. I will then scroll the replies and see the same 10 or so names repeatedly, even though a glance at their feeds or a trip down memory-lane will quickly show they were haphazardly bullposting on the way down, claiming “Alt-SZN” every few days as alts went -90% lower for months straight. cringefluencers, now being rejoiced as “the greatest traders on this app” because alts have finally managed to give impressive rallies off the lows, although still being down -50% since those initial ‘Alt-SZN’ claims from months ago… it’s absolutely horrific that this is what’s glorified in this space. throughout the years, it’s become apparent to me that most people do not want to learn how to trade; they want to be sold a dream—a fantasy of what their life will look like when their coins do 1000x, and this dream sells best during times of uncertainty and fear(!) (note: because that will always be the case, those with true skill will never lose their edge. incredible how that works.) those that can fluidly adapt and shift bias in tandem with the market are overshadowed, and often times even berated for not agreeing with the permabulls aforementioned—unreal levels of gaslighting hear me when I say this: social media is not trading. trading is not marketing. there is little overlap between the two. what is effective in markets is not sexy, cool, nor extreme; it’s bland, boring, or rational. it’s okay to follow engagement-baiters, influencers, or marketers, but please don’t try to convince others that they are highly proficient at a particular skill (other than being loud) it’s an insult to everyone that takes trading seriously, and displays true skill on a consistent basis. I imagine this is partially why accounts that post real value on here eventually stop posting entirely, or infrequently. thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Long stocks, short bonds and short bonds outright vs cash.

📣 MARKET IMPACT China's Vice Premier He Lifeng: Trade discussions were constructive, and made substantive progress #bitcoin cryptocraft.com/news/1341356

RT @TraderMercury: I know crypto people don't typically care about stocks, but to some extent, you probably should. if you recall, losing…