The “Strategy is overleveraged” argument only works if Bitcoin falls dramatically and stays there for a long time.
A crash alone is not enough.
Most of the capital stack is not short-term margin debt. There is no simple liquidation price where Saylor gets blown out on a bad candle.
The real risk is duration.
If BTC enters a prolonged bear market, MSTR loses its premium, capital markets close, and the preferred/dividend burden becomes more expensive relative to the asset base, then the structure gets stressed.
That is a very different argument than “Saylor is recklessly leveraged.”
Strategy is built to survive volatility.
The bear case is that Bitcoin stays impaired long enough for the structure to matter.
If you think Bitcoin is going to zero, don’t buy MSTR. If you think Bitcoin is going much higher over time, the leverage argument is probably the least interesting part of the story.
Respectfully.
“Deleverage Strategy” implies they’re overleveraged.
They’re not.
Net debt is about 11% of Bitcoin holdings, with no meaningful near-term maturities and no margin calls.
You can argue about dilution, preferreds, or future capital raises. But the idea that Strategy is one bad candle away from blowing up is simply not supported by the numbers.