A weekly market discussion with DoubleLine's Macro Asset Allocation team recorded Friday afternoon for your Monday morning commute, or anytime in between.

Joined January 2021
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.@DLineCap's Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel review a market week with a monster $SPCX IPO and some very hot inflation prints on the latest Minutes. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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“This month, consumer sentiment ticked up about four index points, or 9%, with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices. This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party. Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets.” – U.Mich.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary release for June, 48.9 vs. 46.0 consensus and 44.8 the previous month.
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University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary release for June, 48.9 vs. 46.0 consensus and 44.8 the previous month.
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Consumer expectations ticked up to 49.3, consumers’ assessment of current conditions rose to 48.4.
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Year-ahead inflation expectations softened from 4.8% last month to 4.6% this month. Long-run inflation expectations edged down from 3.9% in May to 3.4% in June.
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The May producer price inflation data came in hotter than expected. Final demand 1.06%MoM vs. 0.7% consensus and 1.06% the previous month (revised down from 1.4%). Year-over-year accelerated to 6.46% vs. 6.4% consensus, the highest since November 2022. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, trade) 0.85%MoM vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.50% the previous month (revised down from 0.5%). Year-over-year core PPI rose to 5.10% vs. 4.8% consensus, the highest since October 2022.
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The May CPI report was in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.47%MoM vs. 0.5% consensus, and the year-over-year pace rose to 4.2%YoY vs. 4.2% consensus, the highest pace since April 2023. Core CPI came in slightly softer than expected 0.21%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus;  year-over-year rose to 2.9%YoY vs. 2.9% consensus, the highest since September 2025. Core goods inflation -0.11%MoM in May; 1.06%YoY; there were declines in new cars, medical care commodities, recreational commodities, education and communication commodities, and household furnishings and supplies. Core services inflation decelerated to 0.30%MoM in May; 3.4%YoY; shelter normalized to 0.31%MoM; 3.4%YoY; airfares 2.7%MoM
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DoubleLine Minutes retweeted
Record equity prices and historically weak consumer sentiment are not in contradiction but are instead two readings of the same K-shaped economy, where asset ownership determines whether inflation's aftermath feels like a windfall or a wall. linkedin.com/pulse/record-hi…
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While the FOMC is expected to stand pat on the fed funds rate June 17, Jeff and Mark wonder if Kevin Warsh’s first chairmanship of the committee will mark the end of the its dot-plot survey of members’ outlooks for future rate levels. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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“Bitcoin has broken down through several support levels,” Jeff Mayberry comments. “I don’t know what the chart is telling you, but it certainly looks as if the momentum is to the downside.” podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Although fed funds futures are pricing in a rate hike by year-end, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry doubts the current economic picture suffices to dent Warsh’s relative dovishness. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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“We’re through the vast majority of earnings season,” DoubleLine Analyst Mark Kimbrough notes. “So the markets are trading on macro data and geopolitical headlines.” podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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.@DlineCap's Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough survey the June 1-5 week, ending with a selloff in stocks and higher bond yields on fed funds rate worries after Friday’s strong payrolls report for May. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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The unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% (4.296% unrounded). Th U-6 rate, which includes persons marginally attached to the labor force and part-time workers for economic reasons, ticked down 0.1% to 8.1%.
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The household survey measure of employment showed employment rebounded 149k in May after 4 consecutive months of decline.
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The Labor Force Participation Rate stable at 61.8%. The prime age participation rate 0.1% at 83.9% while the >55yrs cohort stable at 37.1%, a cycle low.
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