25 yrs in markets. Macro, deep value, niche commodities. Early on overlooked plays. Charts context → conviction. Trading: tinyurl.com/2eb3vnju
Joined September 2013
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$SILVER / $SPX
Here’s a fun one.
Could silver eventually trade back near its early-1980s relative high versus the general stock market?
For that to happen, silver would need to outperform the S&P 500 by roughly 4,700%.
Not saying that happens tomorrow, next year, or even this decade.
But if this giant multi-decade rounding structure keeps playing out, the second half of the 21st century could get pretty interesting.
Exciting...
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$CL / $SPX is one of the more important charts nobody talks about...
Back in January, when everyone was screaming “#oil glut” and writing off #energy, this ratio was sitting at what now looks like the absolute low for oil versus the broader stock market.
That was exactly when I said oil near $55 looked like a buy...
Since then, $CL / $SPX has already broken out of that smaller basing structure. And even inside this larger descending structure, oil could still run almost 100% versus the general equity market before reaching the top of the range.
If this larger structure eventually breaks to the upside - which I think it will - oil could see a much more violent move higher than most are currently positioned for.
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$BTC is starting to break down from that smaller bear flag here.
The important part: this is happening right around the bigger support structure / multi-year support zone.
For me, 60K–61K is the real line in the sand.
Lose that cleanly, and it becomes very simple.. Look out below #CRYPTO
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“Peace deal is a certainty”
Sure...
April 8: ceasefire struggles immediately.
April 16/17: temporary Lebanon ceasefire.
June 4: another U.S.-mediated plan hits the Israel/Hezbollah reality wall.
June 14: US-Iran deal supposedly close, then Israel strikes Beirut.
At some point this stops being random noise...
⚡️BREAKING: Iran's National Security Council has decided to respond to Israel's strike in Beirut
Ballistic missile strike on Israel is now imminent
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DeepValue Signals retweeted
BREAKING: Iran rejects Trump's new claim to Axios that a deal will be signed "within the next few hours," calling it "out of touch with reality" given that nothing has been finalized and no agreement exists, especially after today's Israeli strike on Beirut, per Tasnim.
Iran's senior negotiating team member Marandi separately says "there will be no more negotiations for now."
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Peace deal is a certainty...
IRAN ARMY COMMANDER: FINGER ON THE TRIGGER, READY TO STRIKE ENEMY’S HEART
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Well said...
Very much in line with what I flagged yesterday, with a few extra pointers worth adding.
x.com/DVSignals/status/20658…
ATTENTION: THERE IS NO 'DEAL' TO BE SIGNED.
Regarding Iran, on the table now is a mere Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) - not a final accord or treaty. Rather, it's only an acknowledgement of a future process to take place over the next 18 months. The real problem: the word "Deal" used in a diplomatic context is an invention of the Trump regime, it's intententionally devoid of diplomatic context or historical precedent. The Media need to really be slapped for continuing to use this silly & deceptive term. REALITY: Iran's & Trump's competing MOU terms are a literal minefield stretching into the future, that's to say nothing about Israel's numerous announcements about how they will sabotage any ceasefire (which they already have in Lebanon as we speak). The reason Trump keeps using "Deal" is because he is incapable of conducting any real negotiations or accepting any Iranian terms (Iran is the obvious winner & normally winner issues terms with loser, not 'even negotiation' as the clueless sophmoric VP JD Vance said yesterday 🤦), and is disingenuously trying to separate Israel from the wider equation - when we all know it is Israel who initiated this war to begin with. Trump's framing of these endless ephemeral "Deals" is by design - to fool the public and guarantee that any meaningful negotiations fail - which is why he has a string of perennial failures: unwilling/unable to resolve Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, and now Iran. In fact, he's made all of them worse at every stage. A total failure on every level.
Trump is one of history's losers. Nothing can change that now because as the world can now see, he's too incompetent, as are the many idiot savants & grifters around him masquerading as a Cabinet.
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Jun 13
This is not some grand "deal" that ends the war. It is basically another framework / pause / kicking-the-can exercise: another 60 days to maybe come up with actual terms..
Iran is not suddenly surrendering leverage. The nuclear issue is not magically solved. The regional risk is not gone...
Yet markets are acting like the war premium just disappeared, oil is dumping, and everyone can sail freely through the Strait tomorrow.. which, as I’ve already said, would not even be realistic under a proper peace deal..
Jun 13
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The memorandum of understanding is not a final agreement with Washington, but rather an understanding that raises the key points of contention and affirms the end of the war.
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Jun 13
RT @HFI_Research: 6th largest crude draw in US history next week.
Since April 24, we will have 6 out of the 10 largest crude draws since…
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Jun 12
A few minutes after the close...
Jun 12
BREAKING: Several explosions heard near Qeshm Island and Sirik, southern Iran, with initial reports of Iran striking targets in the Strait of Hormuz, per Mehr News.
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Jun 12
$CL $BNO $USO
The irony here is that most people are selling #oil right into what may be the bottom.
This is usually where you should be looking to buy, not panic out.
If it breaks down, fine; that’s what stops are for.
But from a risk/reward perspective, this is exactly the kind of zone where the upside can be large and the downside is clearly defined.
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Jun 12
$CL #Oil
Oil is testing extremes here...
Messy chart, but the multi-month channel is still holding for now.
The key zone for me is 82–83.
A wick into that area is fine.
A clean loss of 81–82 and the bullish read gets much harder to defend...
For now: support is being tested, not broken.
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DeepValue Signals retweeted
Jun 11
FARS NEWS, CITING A SOURCE CLOSE TO IRAN’S NEGOTIATING TEAM, SAID IRAN HAS NOT APPROVED OR FINALIZED ANY TEXT FOR AN INITIAL MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE UNITED STATES.
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Jun 11
$SILVER $GOLD
There you go...
Caught the low almost to the cent last night, went long, closed out my silver future at 64 for a very healthy profit, then reloaded shortly after via $SLV calls..
Closed those for roughly 40% on the day.
Still holding my gold futures...
That one trade alone could have paid for your Discord subscription 10x over, depending on size and risk appetite.
And for those who may have forgotten: yes, I can long precious metals too...
I still do not think this necessarily means “the low is in”
Jun 11
$GOLD $SILVER
Yesterday, in reply to @SilverDegen's post correctly pointing out that gold and silver would offer a buying opportunity, In yesterday morning’s Discord update, I outlined a similar tactical buying opportunity in silver, with the entry sitting slightly lower around the 61 area.
To be clear: I still view this as a tactical long, not necessarily “the low”.
But the execution was pretty damn clean...
Gold: nailed almost to T (ended up buying 2 micros).
Silver: missed the low by roughly five cents.
And remember; this is not the first time. Back in March, I also called the silver low around 61 almost to the cent.
I’d bet most analysts did not call one of these, let alone both.
Discord is where I post these more active trade setups and levels. Around €40/month; still cheaper than most services charging more for less value..
🔗 go.paybotapp.com/DGGJGJME/6w…
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Jun 11
$GOLD $SILVER
Yesterday, in reply to @SilverDegen's post correctly pointing out that gold and silver would offer a buying opportunity, In yesterday morning’s Discord update, I outlined a similar tactical buying opportunity in silver, with the entry sitting slightly lower around the 61 area.
To be clear: I still view this as a tactical long, not necessarily “the low”.
But the execution was pretty damn clean...
Gold: nailed almost to T (ended up buying 2 micros).
Silver: missed the low by roughly five cents.
And remember; this is not the first time. Back in March, I also called the silver low around 61 almost to the cent.
I’d bet most analysts did not call one of these, let alone both.
Discord is where I post these more active trade setups and levels. Around €40/month; still cheaper than most services charging more for less value..
🔗 go.paybotapp.com/DGGJGJME/6w…
Jun 10
Yes.. Levels to be discussed w/ subs (and more..)
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