Joined July 2011
- Tweets 10,970
- Following 603
- Followers 76,130
- Likes 3,349
4,131 Photos and videos
IS PEACE AT HAND — OR BACK TO WAR?
Will there be a signed MOU tomorrow? If so, on whose terms will it be based: the version claimed by President Trump and his supporters in Washington, or the version issued by many Iranian leaders? The two sides are totally incompatible, and either one side is lying and one side is telling the truth, or tomorrow one side will submit on all of its public claims to the other side.
Based on history, there’s a higher probability President Trump has been lying, and could well be setting the stage to return to war, blaming it on the Iranians, claiming they reneged on the terms.
All of this speculation at the moment, but presumably, we will know something within the next day or two. Not holding my breath we get a deal both agree to tho.
35
40
170
5,953
🔥 Trump’s Plan to End Iran War has a Major Flaw: NO RELEASE OF FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS.” — AND THAT’S THE PROBLEM
Trump’s Iran war termination plan is cracking — and tomorrow’s ‘deal signing’ may be fiction.
I am exposing the contradiction: “Trump says he will not release any frozen funds released up front.”
But Iran’s top officials insist the opposite — “there will be money up front or there will be no deal… because we have no trust in the United States.”
I show why these positions can’t coexist: Trump says categorically no, while Iran says categorically yes.
And the bottom line: “Somebody is going to have to make a big change from what they’ve been saying publicly - or the whole façade will come off and we will re-discover that this has been a charade from the beginning, leaving us no closer to an end then we were in early April
👉 Watch the full clip — before the promised ‘deal’ collapses on contact with reality.
open.substack.com/pub/daniel…
🏷️ #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #DanielDavis
#NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #StraitOfHormuz
#WarAndPeace #GlobalStability
37
83
323
10,290
PUT THE BREAKS ON THE IRAN DEAL: IRAN SAYS NO PLAN TO SIGN ON SUNDAY
Iranian news agency FARS reports that the Iranian officials have NOT agreed to the terms of the MoU, and there is NOT a signing deal presently set up for tomorrow.
Maybe backchannel negotiations will continue into the night and by Sunday maybe a deal will be worked out, but the fact that the Iranian side is emphatically saying all the terms have not been agreed to, casts doubt on Trump claiming that all details have been agreed to and now its merely to publish them tomorrow.
This is starting to have the feel of yet another of those situation where the president claims one thing, with great confidence, only to find out in a very short period of time, he was not telling the truth.
Based on the public positions of the U.S. and Iran on the single issue of release of frozen funds up front - Iran saying they are a non-negotiable requirement; Trump and Vance saying it won't happen - the other, thornier issues (such as Hezbollah support in Lebanon and Israel's requirement to withdraw from the country) - chances of a big breaktrhough tomorrow seem slim.
61
106
352
12,469
Vice President Vance told Fox News today Iran will not get any frozen funds released up front. Then forget what you've heard from President Trump today, there almost certainly will NOT be a deal signed tomorrow, as long as VP Vance's words reflect U.S. policy.
Almost all Iranian leaders, for weeks, have said they would not sign any deal or enter into any agreement that did not release funds, up front, owing to the absence of any trust in the United States' resulting from the last two wars we've started against them while allegedly engaging in diplomatic talks.
Nearly impossible to imagine how Iran would suddenly go back on that most fundamental requirement *tomorrow* as doing so would require them to put all trust in the U.S., give Trump all he wants, while they get nothing until potentially much later.
Signing without any unfrozen funds or relief on the energy-sanctions by the U.S., and open the Iranian closer of the SoH up front, would also greatly reduce leverage for Iran in subsequent negotiations.
Iran would have to be fools to agree to such terms, and they have not shown themselves to be such. Therefore, unless Trump and his team gave Iran something as profoundly important as the unfrozen funds AND forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, there won't be a deal signed tomorrow.
32
75
271
7,107
Signing a Deal Tomorrow? It's Scheduled! /Lt Col Daniel Davis x.com/i/broadcasts/1RKZzzRQv…
16
10
55
2,867
Deep Dive Intel Briefing 6/13 /2026 Lt Col Daniel Davis x.com/i/broadcasts/1rGmqqAYp…
2
23
94
3,053
Fair enough, they should say never again. I have personally been to the concentration camp Memorial outside of Munich at Dachau, four times in my life, and to the concentration camp at Auschwitz once. It is an historical tragedy what happened to them.
However…
Shouldn’t “never again“ apply to all of humanity? Surely Palestinian
people should also qualify, or Lebanese people. Are they not just as valuable?
This is why Jews say “Never again.”
Community note
The story and image are not documented in historical records of Mauthausen liberation. Memorial sites warn of proliferating AI-generated fakes depicting Holocaust scenes. mauthausen-memorial.org/en/History/The… encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/gal… kz-gedenkstaette-neuengamme.de/en/news/news/o…
42
98
539
27,111
More Israeli headwinds *against* any deal bt US and Iran. Any possibility for discussing the nuclear question will definitely b in a phase 2 — only after we get a phase 1 deal (which Mr Gallant and Israel are trying to sabotage to prevent even a phase 1 deal)
Where is the uranium?
11
21
152
8,337
Something tells me when the terms of this deal are mutually revealed, President Trump’s supporters aren’t going to like it, and will immediately put pressure on him to go back on it, hence Mr. Ghalibaf’s warning below.
Commitments made must be commitments kept. No ifs, no buts, no excuses. For the close deal ahead, there is no other way.
You reap what you sow.
29
72
417
16,239
🔥 “THIS IS THE 40TH TIME TRUMP SAID WE’RE ‘CLOSE TO A DEAL.’”
The Iran war narrative is collapsing — and the leverage to force Iran into submission isn’t where Washington claims it is.
I reveal: “President Trump has no credibility… no trust… and no leverage.”
Meanwhile, “the Iranian side does” — and they know exactly how much power they hold.
I explain that Iran can still strike vulnerable targets that they have not yet attacked, while “the targets that we have to hit (in any restart of the fighting) are not vulnerable to what we have to bring to bear.” Why does anyone in the White House believe that firing the same missiles against the same Iranian targets won’t have the same results as the first time?
And the most damning line: “None of it matters if the ordnance… cannot compel compliance on the other side.”
👉 Watch the full clip — the gap between U.S. claims and battlefield reality is widening fast.
open.substack.com/pub/daniel…
🏷️ #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #DanielDavis
#NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #StraitOfHormuz
#WarAndPeace #GlobalStability
16
92
374
7,966
Israeli defense minister, Katz unambiguously signaling to President Trump, and the American public, that Israel will not stop fighting in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else. And it will continue to maintain independence to fight Iran going into the future, regardless of any deal, Trump signs – in other words, they will agree to no kind of ceasefire or end of war treaty.
We need to be crystal clear on this.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and the defense minister are flat out telling us they will do what they want no matter what President Trump wants.
It is clearly time for us to charge our own path, and leave Israel to do what it thinks is best for its country, and not be drawn into any future wars it starts. President Trump needs to be clear on that to everyone, especially Prime Minister Netanyahu.
נשיא ארה"ב מוביל בימים אלה להסכם עם איראן מתוך ראיית האינטרסים האמריקאים, ובהם גם האינטרס המשותף עם ישראל - למנוע מאיראן נשק גרעיני - ואנו מצפים שיעמוד על העיקרון הזה ועקרונות נוספים בתחום הטילים ושלוחי הטרור.
ביחד הנחתנו על איראן מכות קשות שהסיגו את יכולותיה שנים רבות לאחור.
ישראל חייבת לוודא שגם בעתיד תהיה לנו את היכולת לפעול באופן עצמאי כדי למנוע מאיראן נשק גרעיני, ורה"מ בנימין נתניהו ואני הנחינו את צה"ל להיערך בהתאם.
ישראל לא תיסוג מאזורי הביטחון בלבנון, בסוריה ובעזה. צה"ל ימשיך להגן על גבולותינו ואזרחינו מתוך כתר החרמון, הרי הלבנון, חבלי ארצנו בשומרון ורוב שטחה של עזה - מול איומי כוחות וארגונים ג'יהאדיסטים, כלקח מרכזי מאירועי ה-7 באוקטובר.
צה"ל לא ייסוג ממחנות הטרור בצפון השומרון, המפונים מתושבים, ובמידת הצורך יורחב המהלך למחנות טרור נוספים.
תפיסת הביטחון שלנו חדה וברורה: פועלים מול איומים קרובים ורחוקים ושואפים להכרעות ולא לפשרות וויתורים.
הרבה מונח על כפות המאזניים בתקופה זו ואנחנו נחושים להמשיך ולהוביל מדיניות ביטחונית תקיפה שתמנע פגיעה בהישגינו הביטחוניים ולא תסכן את יכולתנו להיאבק מול ציר הרשע השיעי בהובלת איראן וציר הרשע הסוני בהובלת האחים המוסלמים.
ברצוני להביע הערכה רבה לפיקוד הצה"לי על ההישגים הגדולים ולחיילינו הגיבורים, בסדיר, בקבע ובמילואים, על מלחמת הגבורה למען ביטחון ישראל - ולתושבי הצפון על עמידת הגבורה שנותנת לצה"ל את הכוח להמשיך ולהגן על ביטחונם.
אני שולח חיבוק גדול למשפחות השכולות שאיבדו את היקר מכל ומאחל החלמה לכל הפצועים, בגוף ובנפש, שמסרו עצמם למען ההגנה על חיי היהודים וביטחון מדינת ישראל.
73
324
897
50,462
Trump just reposted Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi claiming we’ve “never been closer” to a negotiated end of the war. Again, I hope this is true — but there must by necessity be a clarifying moment when we’ll find out which side has *dramatically* submitted to the other.
President Trump and Vice President Vance have continuously said, in recent days, the U.S. will NOT release any frozen funds or release sanctions up front — while Iranian officials say both are absolutely *required.*
Then there’s the issue of Israel being required to end its wars in both Lebanon and Gaza. Is President Trump even *able* to compel Netanyahu to submit to those terms?
We’ll find out soon enough.
48
43
205
7,837
I hope it’s true, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The terms Iran has consistently said are its nonnegotiable terms and what Vice President Vance said earlier today are completely incompatible.
So unless one party is willing to dramatically change its public position - and for the sake of peace I hope one does - this is going to b the latest disappointment.
PEACE DEAL AGREED BETWEEN U.S & IRAN ACCORDING TO PAKISTAN
Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif:
“We can confirm that a final and agreed version of the peace agreement has been achieved, and that Pakistan is now working in close cooperation with both sides to complete the next steps. Peace has never been closer than it is now.”
46
55
237
24,607
IRAN WAR BATTLING NARRATIVES //LT Col Daniel Davis x.com/i/broadcasts/1PKqrrqvR…
1
14
58
2,335
Wait, wait, wait: President Trump says yesterday that a deal is all but done and we'll be signing in Europe next week - but now SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS admit we're *at best* 75% of the way there???
The last 25% of ANY deal is ALWAYS the hardest part, with the thorniest issues always put off till last.
I.e., we aren't even *close* to a deal.
Jun 12
🚨 FROM A SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL ON IRAN:
Do we have a deal yet? "No, but we are very close." The official estimates that a deal is 75% there, not 100% yet.
"While this is tentative, we feel confident that we will be signing this in the next few days.”
We have agreed to the concepts and the details, but the deal is NOT done until we sign it.
WHAT IS IN THE DEAL:
(1) The highly enriched uranium will be destroyed — “The deal accomplishes that."
(2) There is a long-term commitment that Iran cannot procure a nuclear weapon.
(3) There is a meaningful inspection process.
(4) Iran cannot fund terrorism as we work toward broader peace in the Middle East.
(5) The Hormuz Strait will be open.
Assets ARE NOT immediately unfrozen. Iran MUST meet its commitments first.
36
44
257
12,517
Trump AGAIN, *already* walking back his contention yesterday that we had a deal all but worked out. As soon as Iranian sources start revealing (not leaking) the terms they will - and will NOT - agree to, Trump starts backtracking, here laying the foundation to back out of his word, blaming Iran for not getting "their act together."
Doesn't even take 24hrs now to get the TACO...
89
180
680
19,717
🔥 “The West Effectively Lost The War With Iran.” — ALASTAIR CROOKE
A stunning assessment of the Iran war — and what it means for U.S. strategy.
Crooke observes: “Strategically it was a failure… overall, it was a strategic failure.”
He says Iran now sees that the West “does not have the military means to take Karg Island or to take the Hormuz back.”
Despite weeks of U.S. bombing, “half an hour after they’ve been bombed, the missiles are still firing.”
And Iran’s leadership is emboldened, declaring they will “dictate the terms for the future, not be dictated to.”
👉 Watch the full clip — the Middle East conflict is shifting in ways Washington can no longer control.
open.substack.com/pub/daniel…
🏷️ #IranWar #MiddleEastConflict #USStrategy #AlastairCrooke #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #IranCrisis #ForeignPolicy #StraitOfHormuz #DanielDavis
17
159
533
16,734
Again, since Trump has made his announcement, more and more information coming out of Iran. These things are incompatible with his vision, so it remains to be seen how President Trump squares what he claimed with what the Iranians say.
Jun 11
Message from Iran to the Palestinians: We are fighting for you,
We will be with you until the full liberation of Palestine, God willing.
25
78
316
11,165