Joined October 2020
2,106 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
23 Nov 2025
๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—น๐˜† ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—น๐˜†๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ I want to share a strategy with you that will let you make money every day on price gaps in the order book Basically, this is just arbitrage using limit orders ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐˜โ€™๐˜€ ๐—ด๐—ผ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฝ ๐—ฏ๐˜† ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฝ: Our main task is to find liquid markets with a spread in the order book of more than 3โ€“5 cents per share and place ourselves in the order book on the outcome that is the most likely This strategy is better suited for people with a smaller bankroll, but that doesnโ€™t mean that if your bankroll is over $1,000 you should close this tweet and scroll on It all depends on your appetite Iโ€™ll show a few trades with different spreads and different percentages Main rules for this strategy: - ๐—Ÿ๐—ถ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ This is both your enemy and your friend The more liquid the event is, the smaller the spread, but the faster trades get filled Less liquid events, on the other hand, will have a bigger spread, but the time between buying a share and selling it becomes longer We need a golden middle ground - ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ Ideally, look for markets with an expiration date more than 3 days away. This gives you time for your limit order to fill on the buy side, and time to sell your limit order as well - ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ I look for markets with at least a 3โ€“5 cent spread per share - ๐—•๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ Example: polymarket.com/event/up-onlyโ€ฆ The spread on this event is 8 cents, and if you remove the first limit buy order on NO, then itโ€™s a full 20 cents The probability of the NO outcome is 84% Vol is $129k So we place a limit buy order on NO and simply wait for it to get filled As soon as the limit order is filled, we list the shares for sale with a limit order as well, using the 8 cent spread The second example is even more liquid polymarket.com/event/how-mucโ€ฆ The volume here is even higher The spread is from 13 to 18 cents per share There is some uncertainty on this market right now, but thanks to the higher volume we can catch the spread quickly and exit the event fast To search for events, you can use any trading terminal, I use @StandDOTtrade In the Discover tab, we set the filter for spreads from 3 to 5 cents, as shown in the screenshot Are you ready to catch the juiciest spreads? This isnโ€™t the first time Iโ€™ve mentioned this strategy, but now Iโ€™ve made a full breakdown of it If you want to dive even deeper and see my profitable screenshots, Iโ€™ll leave links to my articles under this tweet. In those articles I show everything using my own examples If this tweet was useful to you, make sure to leave your thoughts - It really means a lot to me
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Danko retweeted
Jun 12
Most trading incentives programmes are just leaderboard fights dressed up as rewards you grind volume for a month then lose to some whale on the leaderboard @DG3_terminal does it differently $250K rewards pool no top 10 cutoff no winner takes all structure example: $10M monthly volume = $6,200 same day payout if you finish the month 18% PnL the multiplier turns it into > $7.5k
Get Paid to Trade. DG3 Rebates is LIVE with $250K in rewards. Hit 8 volume milestones during FIFA and earn upto $10K in rebates per trader. Profitable months multiply every reward by up to 1.5x. Losing months still pay full base. Instant Rewards, landing in your wallet the same day you hit the milestone.
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Jun 12
Most trading incentives programmes are just leaderboard fights dressed up as rewards you grind volume for a month then lose to some whale on the leaderboard @DG3_terminal does it differently $250K rewards pool no top 10 cutoff no winner takes all structure example: $10M monthly volume = $6,200 same day payout if you finish the month 18% PnL the multiplier turns it into > $7.5k
Get Paid to Trade. DG3 Rebates is LIVE with $250K in rewards. Hit 8 volume milestones during FIFA and earn upto $10K in rebates per trader. Profitable months multiply every reward by up to 1.5x. Losing months still pay full base. Instant Rewards, landing in your wallet the same day you hit the milestone.
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Jun 12
I just built a 10 pick World Cup monster $10 -> $250 Polymarket launched combos in beta i put together more than 20 different combos and will be sharing here hereโ€™s one of them Canada, USA, Brazil, Germoney, Spain, Belgium, France, Argentina, Austria, England all favorites all need to win I hate that I like this one donโ€™t wish me luck - i wonโ€™t need it
Polymarket Combos are now live Finally you can do multiple predictions in one on @Polymarket, it is live for everyone on Beta phase This was one of the most requested features to be added, in a lot of countries many people mostly do combos on sports betting so this is another step to lock definitely in this kind of users Not only they added this yesterday, but they also announced an extra $1M in liquidity rewards just for World Cup markets Buckle up humble farmers
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Danko retweeted
Jun 12
Combos are live in beta on Polymarket so I built my first beautiful disaster for today Czechia to win >3.5 goals in Korea vs Czechia - NO $25 -> $88 3.5x not saying this is smart but opening matches hit different when one tiny slip can make the day 3.5x funnier need Czechia WIN - thats all wish me good luck
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Jun 12
Combos are live in beta on Polymarket so I built my first beautiful disaster for today Czechia to win >3.5 goals in Korea vs Czechia - NO $25 -> $88 3.5x not saying this is smart but opening matches hit different when one tiny slip can make the day 3.5x funnier need Czechia WIN - thats all wish me good luck
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Danko retweeted
Jun 11
The world cup kicks off today my 5 favorites to win: - brazil - spain - argentina - portugal - england there's a serious chance to earn on this how? @predictdotfun launched predict cup with a $2,000,000 usdt pool this is the largest world cup campaign on chain right now, built to pull in football fans, sports traders, and active platform users as the tournament progresses how to join: - pick up to 5 teams, locked until the tournament ends - each match has open markets: outcome, exact score, totals - hold 100 shares per match - top 500 of each round split the usdt only 125k wallets on predict fun today with the biggest sports campaign on chain about to start, the user base is set to expand fast as the tournament progresses early movers get the best entry already locked my lineup going for a slice of that ~$2m pie what would your 5 be?
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Jun 11
The world cup kicks off today my 5 favorites to win: - brazil - spain - argentina - portugal - england there's a serious chance to earn on this how? @predictdotfun launched predict cup with a $2,000,000 usdt pool this is the largest world cup campaign on chain right now, built to pull in football fans, sports traders, and active platform users as the tournament progresses how to join: - pick up to 5 teams, locked until the tournament ends - each match has open markets: outcome, exact score, totals - hold 100 shares per match - top 500 of each round split the usdt only 125k wallets on predict fun today with the biggest sports campaign on chain about to start, the user base is set to expand fast as the tournament progresses early movers get the best entry already locked my lineup going for a slice of that ~$2m pie what would your 5 be?
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Danko retweeted
Jun 10
This trader turned $3k into $44k in 4 months let me break it down - total pnl: $44,488 - volume: $9.48m - win rate: 62% his approach: - no moonshots, not chasing 1000x - high volatility markets with decent volume - many small wins, fast compounding - doesn't oversize, easy exit - only trades when direction flow arguments line up if that's not there - doesn't enter also recommend you check out his tweet that i quoted i think you'll find something useful for yourself this trader proved to me one more time that on the board the one who wins is the one with their own strategy and most importantly, sticks to it do you think heโ€™s just lucky?
I turned a $3,000 deposit on Polymarket into over a $40,000 PnL. Here is my journey: Started the year down bad, ran $7k into the ground gambling without a real edge. Hit $3k and had a choice to make. The turning point came the day of the Iran strikes. Everyone was buying YES on strikes. I went short Bitcoin instead, felt the downside was smaller if I was wrong. Bitcoin dumped. That's when it clicked: stop gambling, size appropriately, be consistent. Since February 28th, exactly 3 months ago: I've turned that $ 3K into $ 40K. I learned so much about risk management and what it takes to be an actual consistently profitable trader. I don't have to gamble and more importantly, i don't have to stress about my positions. The approach is simple: -No moonshots. I'm not looking for 1000x - High Volatility plays with decent volume - Multiple small wins, compounding fast - Dont oversize, allows for easy exits, avoids holding the bag - I trade anything, as long as the direction is clear, the flow is good, and the arguments hold up If I can't find that, I don't trade. Going forward, I'll be sharing my thoughts on markets, the bets I'm taking, updates on my trades, and documenting my journey through prediction markets. Just decided to go full time with one goal right now: $ 100K.
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Jun 10
This trader turned $3k into $44k in 4 months let me break it down - total pnl: $44,488 - volume: $9.48m - win rate: 62% his approach: - no moonshots, not chasing 1000x - high volatility markets with decent volume - many small wins, fast compounding - doesn't oversize, easy exit - only trades when direction flow arguments line up if that's not there - doesn't enter also recommend you check out his tweet that i quoted i think you'll find something useful for yourself this trader proved to me one more time that on the board the one who wins is the one with their own strategy and most importantly, sticks to it do you think heโ€™s just lucky?
I turned a $3,000 deposit on Polymarket into over a $40,000 PnL. Here is my journey: Started the year down bad, ran $7k into the ground gambling without a real edge. Hit $3k and had a choice to make. The turning point came the day of the Iran strikes. Everyone was buying YES on strikes. I went short Bitcoin instead, felt the downside was smaller if I was wrong. Bitcoin dumped. That's when it clicked: stop gambling, size appropriately, be consistent. Since February 28th, exactly 3 months ago: I've turned that $ 3K into $ 40K. I learned so much about risk management and what it takes to be an actual consistently profitable trader. I don't have to gamble and more importantly, i don't have to stress about my positions. The approach is simple: -No moonshots. I'm not looking for 1000x - High Volatility plays with decent volume - Multiple small wins, compounding fast - Dont oversize, allows for easy exits, avoids holding the bag - I trade anything, as long as the direction is clear, the flow is good, and the arguments hold up If I can't find that, I don't trade. Going forward, I'll be sharing my thoughts on markets, the bets I'm taking, updates on my trades, and documenting my journey through prediction markets. Just decided to go full time with one goal right now: $ 100K.
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Jun 10
if you think youโ€™re retarded donโ€™t worry some people still believe the earth is flat... polymarket prices this probability at 2%
one thing i love about prediction/gambling is that at the time you're making your picks, you feel like the smartest person in the room immediately the game/tournament starts you start to realize, maybe you're not that smart afterall the world cup is starting soon predict if you must, but please predict responsibly
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How to know when a crime token is about to unwind ? look at the fuel under the candle in simple terms: price is the picture, OI/funding is the engine the main warning signal: price is still high funding is still extreme but OI is already starting to drop OI = open interest how much leverage is still hanging in the market if price rises together with OI - new fuel is entering the move if price is still high, but OI is already falling - fuel is leaving, even if the chart still looks alive then look for confirmations: - spot volume is not growing - funding is not normalizing - bids under price are getting thinner - liquidation clusters are sitting below - top holders start cutting their positions - volume is being rotated by a small number of wallets this is not a signal to blind short this is a signal to stop trusting candles and open derivatives on chain chart shows what already happened what else would you add to this checklist?
Jun 3
let me give a proper explanation on how this shit works because seeing a lot of fake news when you see these insane candles happening on random tokens like LAB, RAVE, Momentum etc itโ€™s because of a group of people do what is called โ€œactive market makingโ€ almost all of these โ€œactive market makersโ€ are based in China/Asia. many claim to be able to achieve results like RAVE and LAB but few can actually properly deliver typically these AMMs will either approach projects prior to launch or after launch (if certain conditions can be met). but scammy projects also look to approach them the deal is usually that the AMM will put up the capital needed to push the token to the insane highs you see, and in return for the project letting the AMM โ€œcrimeโ€ their token they split whatever the profits are once the crime is complete so how does the crime work and how do the people involve profit? the first thing youโ€™ll notice is that all these tokens have perp listings (usually binance perps) but very few spot listings this is intentional. the first major requirement for this crime to happen is absolute control of the spot supply of the token by that I mean the team/insiders need to control basically the entirety of the float. RaveDAO for instance, insiders were estimated to control over 98% of the spot supply this is vital because spot supply that isnโ€™t controlled by insiders can be sold into the spot price being driven up by perps. to help prevent this is another reason why tokens with basically no spot listings or liquidity are chosen. if there is a lot of spot supply ready to be dumped on the AMM then it could bankrupt them, meaning the crime has failed as it is their capital at risk, AMMs are even asking projects to put them on all the multisigs for the token supply, to ensure that nothing can be dumped while the crime is happening so once supply is completely controlled then what? these AMMs donโ€™t just commit the crime from one or two binance accounts. the accounts would likely be frozen instantly. instead they have 1000s of KYCโ€™d accounts which operate in unison to drive the perp price up because no one has supply to sell, there isnโ€™t any other way to drive the price back down except to short but this is where they get you the AMM can squeeze any short placed, as every shorter will have their breaking point. either their own tolerance or a liquidation point. every short that gets liquidated or stopped out is profit for the AMM add onto the fire that because of huge dislocations between underlying and perp price, you get some insane funding rates. as I write this LAB is -1% an hour shorts pays longs (over 8000% a year). this makes it even harder for shorts to hold their position, plus the AMM is making bank on their long positions funding BriskCapital is right when he says they wouldnโ€™t have let him win with this size of a short position, especially publicly. his mistake was trying to short it in the first place, which is exactly what the AMMs want you to do. where do you think the 7 figs he lost went to? then whenever they decide the crime is complete they pull the rug and you see the collapse candle to zero. because they are the only entity holding the bid up, they have complete control over when and how the price collapses (meaning they can also likely join in on the short) my advice is to not touch these tokens. if you want to feel something just buy a small amount for fun. definitely do not buy anything sizeable, do not make any trades on leverage and DO NOT SHORT you are trying to compete against an entity that has complete control over where price goes
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How to bet on the World Cup like a quan not like a fan let me lay out exactly the 3 setups I plan to execute on polymarket bonus at the end of the tweet the edge on prediction markets isn't guessing the winner it's finding mispricing between consensus and reality the historical context that makes setup #1 work: - 8 nations have ever won the World Cup in 96 years of history (Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, Spain) - France, Spain, England are all in your top 4 - the cup has never gone outside this elite you'll probably hit me with "but danko, what about Croatia making the semifinals 3 times?" yeah, but what stops you from adding more teams to your basket and lowering the risk? we're increasing win probability through math --- SETUP 1 - Winner basket - France 17ยข Spain 16ยข England 11ยข Portugal 10ยข = 54ยข total cost - $1 payout if any of them wins - 85% return - worst case: a team outside the top 4 wins (rare historically but possible) --- SETUP 2 - Top Goalscorer basket - Mbappe 17ยข Kane 13ยข Oyarzabal 8ยข Haaland 7ยข = 45ยข - $1 payout = 122% upside but this market is mispriced by retail what most people miss: - top scorer isn't about pure skill - it's about matches played ร— shots per match ร— penalty taker ร— group difficulty - Mbappe at 17ยข is priced on the name, not on depth-of-tournament - Haaland at 7ยข but Norway might not reach a deep playoff run the real edge: pick the player whose team is almost guaranteed to play 5-7 matches --- SETUP 3 - live panic the market overreacts to in-game events: - goal scored โ†’ reaction -15-30ยข - red card โ†’ overreaction -20-40ยข - missed penalty โ†’ -10-20ยข short term but football is 90 minutes if the match is still live, the team is pushing, momentum isn't dead - the market often bounces back the edge isn't in predicting the goal the edge is in buying someone else's panic TACTICAL PLAY - accumulate the winner basket now while the window is open - wait on the goalscorer market until the group draw to identify deep run candidates - set live alerts on top teams to capitalize on panic dumps polymarket works as a phone app only through @BitgetWallet and I can say it's insanely convenient $5 cashback on your first losing bet = free probe link below which setup looks like the most underpriced market to you?
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First serious terminal for prediction markets with an a16z led round? a16z is not just betting on prediction markets @KairosTradeX raised $2.5M round led by a16zั also in the round: Geneva , University of Illinois / Illinois Ventures, and angels Kairos is building a terminal for prediction markets: - unified view across Polymarket Kalshi - execution - live market data - customizable dashboards - relevant news flow founders are ex-@ Cboe this is an important signal when funds start investing not only in platforms, but also in tooling around those platforms, it means the market is already big enough to create its own infra economy the Polymarket ecosystem is just getting started
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thanks to CT for these opportunities starting to post on X was the best decision of my life started actively posting in october 2025 - right when I moved to the coast covered all my rent, food, and living expenses through content here 900 โ†’ 4,500 followers in 6 months - $8M in volume through my polymarket referral link - many paid deals in one month and all of it because I just wrote what I liked and supported other content creators the last 2 days I had to head back to where I was born, so I wasn't very active just wanted to say thanks to everyone who supports me if it weren't for you - none of what's in the photo would exist keep building and growing, fam what's been your biggest win from CT this year?
got another small stimmy payout web3 did it again, grateful
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Danko retweeted
The GOAT debate will finally be settled.
ANNOUNCING: The Worst Cup 2026. Streaming LIVE on Polymarket June 9th @ 6:30pm ET.
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