Bitcoin 1HR & 4HR Kingfisher Data Charts
1HR View:
BTC has been grinding up, but perp CVD is still pretty negative while spot CVD is only slightly negative. That tells me perps have been fading this push while spot has quietly supported it. Spot and perp delta are both green, so intraday buyers are stepping in, but the bigger picture flow is still net sold. Premium is still negative, so perps are trading under spot and shorts are pretty comfortable here.
4HR View:
Zooming out, total CVD is still strongly negative with both spot and perp CVD deep in the red. That’s a lot of previous distribution the market has to chew through. The 4h deltas have finally flipped positive, so buyers are showing up, but they’re doing it against a heavy spot selling backdrop. Premium is still negative on the 4h as well, which fits a market that’s leaning short and cautious instead of FOMO long.
My Takeaway:
On the 1h, buyers have the ball and can probably squeeze us a bit higher, but on the 4h it still looks like a relief rally inside a larger spot driven downtrend. For now I’m more interested in selling strong bounces than assuming this is a clean trend reversal.