XAUUSD .
šØ BEFORE YOU TRADE NFP⦠READ THIS OR REGRET IT LATER
So for the past 4 hours, the market has been mostly ranging, and traders are confused about the next direction. At the same time, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and the unemployment rate news are due within the next hour. Because of this, the market is intentionally moving sideways to trap as many traders as possibleāwhether they are placing buy/sell trades or setting buy stops and sell stops.
Now the big question is: who will win, and what can we expect from NFP? Letās quickly understand this through market psychology.
At the moment, a lot of liquidity has already been built in the marketāand thatās exactly what the market wants. But from my perspective, sellers are more visible right now. If you look at the structure of this week, the market has been forming a top almost every day and then continuing downward, sweeping previous day lows.
However, today is different. The market gave a strong upside move without sweeping Thursdayās low, and now it is showing a reversal below Thursdayās high. Overall, higher lows have already been formed this week. Due to this reactive price behavior, many traders have entered sell positions again around the 4470 zone. Based on market psychology, itās quite clear that a majority of traders are currently biased toward selling.
According to me, during NFP, gold might first hit sell stops and then push upward, breaking Thursdayās high. This could trap most of the sellers. At the same time, traders who placed sell stops will also get trapped as the market moves upward after triggering them.
Then, because of the volatility during NFP, random buyers may jump into the market. To trap them as well, the market could show a small downside move after the pump.
So overall, Iām expecting a pump followed by a small dump during NFP, with the market potentially closing near or below the 4500 level.
Personally, I donāt prefer trading late today. Iāll either trade after NFP or at the start of the NYC session. Since itās the weekend and considering how the market has behaved this week, I donāt expect a very big move today. Instead, the market might invite more sellers into the weekend and then deliver a strong upside move on Monday.
For that, a strong closing above 4503 is important. Sellers have been entering based on lower highs, and thereās a lot of liquidity sitting in the market. So at some point, a strong bullish move is likely to happen to sweep that liquidity.
For now, I remain bullish on gold above 4442. As long as there is no strong 30-minute bearish candle closing below this level, I will not shift to a bearish bias.
So I hope you liked this short and simple NFP plan. NFP is a highly volatile event, so trade carefully. If your capital is small, itās better to avoid trading.
Good luck for the last trading day of the weekāI hope you all close the week in profit.
By the way, whatās your NFP plan? Let me know in the comments.
XAUUSD .
šØ YOU THINK ITāS BEARISH? THATāS EXACTLY WHY YOUāLL LOSE ā ļø
No doubt, this week gold has been behaving very range-bound and choppy, especially on the higher timeframes. A roller-coaster type of price action has been clearly visible ā the market is moving straight up and then straight down without any clean continuation.
Gold is still holding around the 4500 level. There hasnāt been any strong bullish move above it, nor any clear bearish move below it. This consolidation is happening due to ongoing geopolitical factors as well as market psychology, which is keeping price stuck in this zone.
Now, there are some interesting psychological observations here.
If you notice this week, gold has been sweeping the previous dayās low almost every day, but it has not been sweeping the highs formed since Monday. This indicates a lower high structure on the weekly perspective. Because of this, most traders are trying to sell from the top, believing the market is bearish.
Even today, many traders are expecting the same ā a push up followed by a reversal. But in my view, the market might play a different game.
As of now, the market did not sweep Thursdayās low and instead showed a strong reversal from above it. This has trapped sellers who were targeting a breakdown of the dayās low. Despite being trapped, many of them are still holding their positions or even adding more sell trades.
According to my plan, the market may first show a buying move. After that, a small pullback (selling) could happen, which will attract more sellers thinking itās another lower high. But once a reversal appears after that, Iāll be looking for buying opportunities.
Also, since today is Friday, Iām not planning for very large targets because the market may keep both buyers and sellers confused around the 4500 zone.
Key level:
4442 is important. As long as there is no strong bearish 30-minute candle closing below it, I wonāt target lower levels.
On the 5-minute timeframe, I will treat selling as retracement. If sellers get trapped, Iāll look for buying setups targeting 4462 ā 4488 ā 4502.
In my view, the ideal selling (if it comes) should happen near 4500. Thatās where many traders will enter sells with stop losses above it. Then, next week (possibly Monday), the market could deliver a strong upside move and target those sellers.
Because of the current lower high structure, many traders are already stuck in sell positions ā and the market often moves sharply against such crowd positioning.
So for today, this is my simple analysis with key psychological insights and important levels. Hope you found this plan useful and are ready to trade the last day of the week.
By the way, whatās your trading plan? Let me know in the comments. ā¬ļø