The team at Arbor Data Science provides daily commentary and data-driven analysis for institutional clients of Arbor Research & Trading.
Joined December 2018
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Jun 11
No matter what your local politician says, taxes and inflation were the two most important issues facing small businesses in May 2026. Each issue had approximately 20% of respondents stating that it was their single most important problem during the month.
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According to Vanguard, the two biggest reasons that consumers took 401(k) hardship withdrawals were to avoid foreclosure/eviction and to pay off medical expenses.
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Cattle supply is not something that can increase quickly... That is the reason that the Trump Administration is a big fan of Argentinian beef imports.
@SamuelRines: Macro Strategist at WisdomTree and contributor to Arbor Data Science
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May 28
U.S. motor gasoline inventories totaled 211.59 million barrels on 5/22/2026. This was the lowest level since it was 209.90 million barrels in November 2025, and the lowest inventory total compared to any week in May over the past 10 years.
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May 26
The resource-intensive nature of data centers — namely excessive water and energy usage — was the main reason respondents cited for their opposition to data center construction, according to a Gallup survey conducted from April 1-15, 2026.
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May 21
The week-over-week (5/8/2026 to 5/15/2026) decrease of 9.92 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was the largest one week change since the inventory data became available in the summer of 1982.
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May 21
Over the previous 10 years, there were only 3 times in which the SPR had a net increase in barrels. The largest decrease was in 2022, which had a drawdown of 221 million barrels. In 2026, there has been a total drawdown of 39.29 million barrels (as of 5/15/2026).
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May 19
Brazil is the largest supplier of soybeans to China. Its share of China’s soybean market jumped from 60% in 2022 to 74% in 2025. During the same period, the share of soybeans from the U.S. declined from 31% in 2022 to 15% in 2025.
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May 15
Quality of labor has been a top concern for small businesses. The most recent reading in April 2026 suggested that it was the biggest issue that small businesses faced, with 18% of firms citing it as their main challenge.
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May 12
The $1.5 trillion budget proposal submitted by the Pentagon for FY 2027 includes $76.96 billion on the procurement of missiles and missile defense systems. This would nearly triple the planned spending of $27.22 billion in FY 2026 for missiles and missile defense systems.
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Apr 30
65.90% of the Fed’s total assets were U.S. Treasuries on 4/22/2026. This was the highest level since 3/26/2008, when Treasuries comprised 68.49% of the total balance sheet.
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Apr 28
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that 66.3% of workers earning over $200,000 had used AI tools at work in the past 12 months as of November 2025. For comparison, only 15.9% of workers who were earning less than $50,000 had used AI tools at work over the same time frame.
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Apr 23
According to a survey from PYMNTS, 40.4% of consumers were living paycheck-to-paycheck at the end of 2025
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Apr 21
As of 4/10/2026, the average individual income tax refund was $3,397, up from the average refund of $3,055 in 2025. However, after adjusting for inflation, the average refund for each of the last eight years was below 2018 in real terms.
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Apr 16
Defense stocks were down 10-20% in the first 30 trading days since Operation Epic Fury began (3/2/26 – 4/14/26). Every other conflict saw defense names rally within the first few months.
@pinkhasov - Research consultant for Arbor Data Science
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Apr 14
Google Search Trends shows a tight relationship between state-level searches for "free credit check" and "buy now pay later." The upper-right cluster of states may illustrate where household balance sheets are under the most pressure.
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Higher health care costs continue to weigh on consumers’ financial health. In a poll conducted by KFF, consumers were most worried about affording health care, with 32% of respondents “Very worried” and 34% “Somewhat worried.”
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Diesel hit $5.40/gal in March 2026 — the highest since October 2022, when it averaged $5.32. Back then, NFIB small business optimism was 91.30. Optimism was 98.80 in February 2026. Will small businesses stay positive when faced with rising energy costs?
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On average, passenger cars in the U.S. are now 14.5 years old, light trucks are 11.9 years old, and the total fleet is 12.8 years old. Every single category has trended higher for 30 straight years with no sign of reversal.
@pinkhasov - Research consultant for Arbor Data Science
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Average U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 6.20% in March 2026, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
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