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data golf @DataGolf

statistics and data visualization, applied to golf.

Joined July 2016
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data golf@DataGolf
Jun 12
Newsletter out this morning: - Scheffler's winless drought - Shot-level data from Shinnecock in '18 - Nelly Korda's position on our all-time list link: datagolf.com/newsletter/78/u…
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Here is one way to visualize Annika's dominance versus Tiger's:
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This is from a new blog post that digs into our women's data back to 2000: datagolf.com/introducing-wom…

Introducing our women's data and rankings

Exploring adjusted strokes-gained and rankings for the women's game.

datagolf.com
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Will is out following Brooks' group this morning and has decided to make a live blog out of it. Follow along here: datagolf.com/live-blog/canad…
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Presidents Cup hub is updated for 2026. Here's the current combined list (red means inside the top 12 Americans in that metric, green means inside top 12 Internationals). Good to see some green on the board here.
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link to hub: datagolf.com/presidents-cup/…

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FedExCup projections update: - 46 of the 70 playoffs spots are now locked (>99%) - 26 of the 50 BMW spots are locked - 11 of the 30 Tour Champ. spots are locked - projected point cutoff for the playoffs is 588. Projected movement from start-of-year priority bins:
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Interesting to compare this current matrix to start of year (below). The top-50 group has overperformed, winning 14/20 non-opposite events (Fitz bros get 1 win each for Zurich). Still a lot of turnover though: ~19/50 guys won't be in Sigs (if they exist) to start next year.
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Full projections here: datagolf.com/tours/pga-tour/…
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Birdie on 2 for Scottie 👀
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How far back is too far back tomorrow? Probably 1.
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A bunched leaderboard through 36 holes, plus a big wave split today (due to conditions and maybe some nerves), means we have an insane 54-hole leaderboard. Here are the scores by tee time today:
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The spreadsheets have spoken today. We've got a proper test.
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We are tracking for a historically low variance week at a major. It's particularly unusual to have so little separation on a difficult golf course:
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It looks like 4 is going to be the cutline (maybe 3), so there might be just 8 strokes between the lead and the cut by day's end.
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Little known fact: Blockie's short game isn't good.
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As great as Rory's career has been, he hasn't been the clear best player in any season since 2014:
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Here's Will on why it's important for Rory to put together one more big season:
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This is from our PGA Championship live blog, which you can follow all week here: datagolf.com/live-blog/pga-c…

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Rahm's non-major career SG is historically good. Better than Rory's, better than Scottie's. But his major career has been mediocre relative to these expectations. Most top players elevate their game at the majors, but Rahm has played in line with his (very high) baseline.
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Read the full post in our PGA Championship live blog: datagolf.com/live-blog/pga-c…

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A lot of Rahm doubters reading the live blog. 33% view him as the 6th-or-worse favourite this week:
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