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Watch DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas' interview on $SPCX's debut on @bloomberg today!
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
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DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: "This year’s IPO class suggests investors are willing to fund growth, but only when supported by credible business models and durable competitive advantages." @CIdzelis @MarketWatch marketwatch.com/story/as-spa…
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DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas is about to be on @bloomberg discussing $SPCX, tune in!
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US fund investors were net buyers of the S&P 500’s recent all time high but have been quite cautious on domestic stocks this year.
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Fed Chair Warsh favors trimmed mean inflation readings over standard measures. The Cleveland Fed’s version of this approach shows inflation is reaccelerating.
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Since 2024, when the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index has closed above 27.2 forward 1-month S&P returns have been positive 4 out of 5 times (average gain of 4.3%). A VIX close above that level in the coming days should yield similarly good forward returns.
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1/2 The global VC market just recorded its 2nd largest funding month ever, driven almost entirely by AI-related investments, a sign that private markets are capitalizing the next generation of public companies at an unprecedented pace...
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2/2 ...Concentration is striking, with AI accounting for 79% of May’s global funding and a handful of megadeals dominating the totals. If SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all go public this year, the resulting liquidity could reload the venture pipeline at an unprecedented scale.
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US large cap Financials are the second cheapest sector in the S&P 500 and have recently underperformed by 2 standard deviations. We therefore believe the group should benefit as investors rotate out of Tech, making it a reasonable trade over the coming weeks/months.
$XLF
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Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) retweeted
DataTrek's Nick Colas/Jessica Rabe joined @Downtown on @TheCompoundNews to discuss the most extreme stretch of Tech outperformance in recent market history, the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, and how to spot when Tech has run too far like in 1999/2000.
youtu.be/ymc4q-oMEPo?si=3cs_…
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1/3 Classical finance says stocks should return about 5 percentage points more than long-dated Treasuries to compensate investors for their incremental risk. However, that’s not why equity indexes actually outperform bonds...
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2/3 ...Rather, a relative handful of names (1 – 2%) do all the heavy lifting, collectively powered by profitable technological innovation...
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3/3 ...US stocks look (at best) fairly valued when compared to bonds, but that traditional approach ignores this important dynamic. The risk premium in US stocks is tied to AI, not bond yields.
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Gold is close to flat on the year ( 0.2%), an odd result given geopolitical uncertainty/inflation concerns. Its 12-mo relative performance to the S&P 500 ending in late Jan 2026 was a 3 standard deviation upside move, which explains why gold has been sluggish since then.
$GLD
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S&P 500 net profit margins hit 14.8% in Q1 2026, well above their Pandemic Era highs of 13.1%. Most S&P sectors saw margin improvements, not just Tech and Tech-adjacent groups. Strong net margins translate into high returns on shareholder capital and, therefore, valuations.
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Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) retweeted
Jun 8
A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What?
On this episode of What Did We Learn, @Downtown Josh Brown, Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of @DataTrekMB break down one of the most extreme runs of tech outperformance in decades, the growing divide between Semis and Software, SpaceX's potentially historic IPO, and what the lessons of 1999 can teach investors about today's market.
Link below⏯️👇🚀
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1/2 US large cap Tech recently outperformed the S&P 500 by 6 standard deviations over the prior 50 days. No other rally since 2015 comes anywhere close. Prior periods of lesser but still statistically significant outperformance suggest further gains, even with Friday’s selloff...
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2/2 ...Our own view is that prudent traders should acknowledge that we are in uncharted waters and size positions accordingly. We remain long term bulls on Tech.
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