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Derek Scissors @DerekScissors1

Resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Chief economist, China Beige Book

Joined June 2014
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Recession with Chinese Characteristics aei.org/economics/recession-… (1/4)

Recession with Chinese Characteristics

Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two...

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Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. (3/4)
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Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two years. (4/4)
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The US Takes the Easy Road on China aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

The US Takes the Easy Road on China

President Trump's long-standing chase for deals with China has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later.

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The President’s long-standing chase for China deals has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later.
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A mainstay issue being suspiciously soft-played is pharmaceuticals.
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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Apr 1
Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar

Dollar dominance can last for many more decades. The duration, like all economic outcomes, isn’t predetermined by trends but by actions. Actions by others, including China, have to this point...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Mar 26
Trillions in Foreign Investment? No Boom Yet aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Trillions in Foreign Investment? No Boom Yet

Most information regarding the economy in 2025 has now been published, including inbound foreign investment data released this week. Based on the first year of its international economic policies,...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Mar 23
A Decade of US-China Fundamentals aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

A Decade of US-China Fundamentals

It’s starting to sink in that China’s economic strategy, not performance, is a challenge to the US. The strategy—make the world more dependent on China and China less dependent on the world—has made...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Mar 9
Ho Hum, Another Year of US Energy Dominance aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Ho Hum, Another Year of US Energy Dominance

There are plenty of conspiracy theories around global energy production, and there probably should be more. There should be more because the 2020’s look like a shockingly successful American energy...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Mar 5
When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)? aei.org/research-products/re…

When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)?

The Chinese economy has been generally weaker than acknowledged in the 2020s. The most frequently discussed solutions, such as stimulating consumption, cannot generate a sizable, sustained impact for...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Feb 27
Some Clarifications Regarding the New Trade Situation aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

Some Clarifications Regarding the New Trade Situation

On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s use of emergency authority for many tariffs. Trump showed quick inconsistency, announcing a 10 percent global tariff then raising it a day later. This...

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Feb 27
2025 Trade and Investment Didn’t Yield Manufacturing Jobs aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

2025 Trade and Investment Didn’t Yield Manufacturing Jobs

The year’s trade deficit trend and a key measure of foreign investment in the US provide figures President Trump is likely to emphasize. However, the more optimistic his spin, the more glaring is the...

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China Global Investment Tracker aei.org/china-global-investm…

China Global Investment Tracker

The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined since 2005 has hit $2.6 trillion. Verifiable investment recovered from COVID and zero-COVID but has not gone back anywhere close to...

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The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined since 2005 has hit $2.6 trillion. Verifiable investment recovered from Covid and zero-Covid but has not gone back anywhere close to the peak in the mid-2010s.
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The China Global Investment Tracker is the only comprehensive public data set covering the country’s outbound investment and construction. It includes 4,900 large transactions across metals, property, agriculture, and other sectors, plus over 400 troubled transactions.
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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Jan 26
Steady, Not Soaring, Chinese Investment in 2025 aei.org/research-products/re…

Steady, Not Soaring, Chinese Investment in 2025

China’s authentic global investment was steady in 2025, recovering from spring weakness stemming from uncertainty created by the initial US tariffs.

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Derek Scissors@DerekScissors1
Jan 20
A Rich China Recedes Into the Distance aei.org/foreign-and-defense-…

A Rich China Recedes into the Distance

China on Monday announced that it exactly hit the 2025 real GDP growth target of five percent. Even if you believe it, and you shouldn’t, the rest of what was announced is still disturbing for the...

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