Joined May 2025
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
You either think people should be burned out of their homes because of the colour of their skin or you don't. There is no third position
Jun 13
Opinion: The 'woke' left and extreme right have silenced the normal majority
belfastlive.co.uk/news/north…
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These 'stats' are as legitimate as their concerns.
These people have nothing to offer but lies and increasingly blatant racism.
Jun 12
Belfast houses more asylum seekers per capita than almost any other place in the UK.
One in 200 people in Belfast is an illegal migrant.
Who could possibly have foreseen civil unrest?
It’s the immigration, stupid.
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Jun 11
This is possibly the saddest thing I've seen in a long time..an immigrant nurse talking about fleeing her home..she saved her UNIFORM. So she could still WORK for our communities.
I'd fill this country with a thousand of this woman than one of those good for nothing thugs.
God help this poor woman.
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
They're not protesting about an attempted murder. They're using an attempted murder as an excuse for racist mayhem.
Footage obtained by Talk shows a bus on fire in Belfast, as protesters take to the streets over the attempted murder of a man last night.
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Just home from dealing with the consequences of tonight's lawlessness.
Perhaps some of the English right wing influencers and local politicians enthusing about these protests would explain to children I met why they have no beds to sleep in tonight.
Utterly disgusted.
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If you think the solution to a horrific crime is to commit a bunch of horrific crimes then you are part of the problem.
I hope the PSNI come down like a ton of bricks on the orchestrators of last night, not just their 15 year old foot soldiers.
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Didn’t see much of the same angry outcry and mobilisation from so called ‘patriots’ then. I wonder what the difference is?
judiciaryni.uk/files/judicia…
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Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll:
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 15
🔷 UUP — 12
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 5
🌱 GP — 4
Make your own on:
devolvedelections.co.uk/nort…
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At the executive, the SDLP would be back to qualifying for a seat as the big three slip backwards from 2022.
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PBP and Sugden are being wiped out here, but it wouldn't take much of a polling for one or both to hold on. On 2% they'd be safe, on 1% they're done.
(note we round to .5 because polling to one decimal place is silly).
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It would depend on exactly how you do it, but on 2024 a 'fair' distribution would be:
SF 5
DUP 4
APNI 3
SDLP 2
UUP 2
TUV 1
Easton 1
Jun 4
"If Westminster introduced proportional representation, it would be bad news for the DUP and Sinn Féin and good news for most other parties.
"Based on the results of the last general election, Sinn Féin would drop from seven seats to five, and the DUP from five to four."
Read Newton Emerson: tinyurl.com/25uvsn38
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The media need to stop taking Find Out Now seriously. They are a postcode lottery website.
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This is where Find Out Now collect their sample:
pickmypostcode.com
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
We were pretty much on the money in Galway West too.
(The different number of rounds is a computational thing)
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right).
The system works!
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
If Claude thinks Hutch will get 6000 transfers in Dublin Central while Thomas will get 1500 in Galway where there are more voters then Claude is obviously wrong.
AI is just fancy predictive text. It "knows" nothing.
May 23
Same for Dublin central, feeding actual first count vote. Hutch probably doesn't finish as strong, and the opposite for Horner.
Early stages of AI technology, but the fact it can even perform the simulation is still very impressive.
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Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed.
Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central narrowly ahead of Sinn Féin.
irishelections.ie/bye-electi…
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