SpaceX is going public on Friday in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in Wall Street history, aiming to raise roughly $75 billion. According to SpaceX's own public filing, despite a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX remains unprofitable (outside of Starlink), with $37 billion in accumulated losses. The filing also rebrands SpaceX as an AI company, attributing 93% of its value to its proprietary AI LLM, Grok. Yes that's right, people think of SpaceX as a "space company" while SpaceX, according to its own filing, sees itself primarily as an AI company which also shoots rockets into space. However, SpaceX's AI, Grok, has been so underperforming, that SpaceX is now attempting to buy a competitor AI, "Cursor" for $60 billion, for its own engineers to use. The entire valuation relies on the Starship rocket, which is still in development and must reach an "insane" flight frequency to meet stated business goals. How "insane"? Roughly 10,000 starship flights per year. The sum total of successful orbital launches in history, that is every rocket successfully launched into space by any country since it was successfully attempted in 1957, is 6,872. So in order for SpaceX to be profitable it needs to launch 1.45× the entire history of every orbital launch ever attempted by humanity, every year. The IPO appears designed to pay off massive existing debts rather than solely funding new growth, meaning, the people who purchase the IPO share will provide Elon the liquidity he needs to pay SpaceX tens of billions of current debts. What's more, a dual-class share structure ensures Elon Musk retains over 85% of voting power, effectively insulating him from shareholder oversight or, most importantly, future lawsuits.

SpaceX is going public on Friday in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in Wall Street history, aiming to raise roughly $75 billion. According to SpaceX's own public filing, despite a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX remains unprofitable (outside of Starlink), with $37 billion in accumulated losses. The filing also rebrands SpaceX as an AI company, attributing 93% of its value to its proprietary AI LLM, Grok. Yes that's right, people think of SpaceX as a "space company" while SpaceX, according to its own filing, sees itself primarily as an AI company which also shoots rockets into space. However, SpaceX's AI, Grok, has been so underperforming, that SpaceX is now attempting to buy a competitor AI, "Cursor" for $60 billion, for its own engineers to use. The entire valuation relies on the Starship rocket, which is still in development and must reach an "insane" flight frequency to meet stated business goals. How "insane"? Roughly 10,000 starship flights per year. The sum total of successful orbital launches in history, that is every rocket successfully launched into space by any country since it was successfully attempted in 1957, is 6,872. So in order for SpaceX to be profitable it needs to launch 1.45× the entire history of every orbital launch ever attempted by humanity, every year. The IPO appears designed to pay off massive existing debts rather than solely funding new growth, meaning, the people who purchase the IPO share will provide Elon the liquidity he needs to pay SpaceX tens of billions of current debts. What's more, a dual-class share structure ensures Elon Musk retains over 85% of voting power, effectively insulating him from shareholder oversight or, most importantly, future lawsuits.