Joined April 2022
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Really enjoyed chatting with @stockspinoffss about Topgolf, Callaway, and $MODG. We dug into the Topgolf sale, capital structure, what the 40% stake really represents, and how the core golf business looks from here. Always fun to talk golf and investing at the same time. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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On a $LUV flight from Tampa to ROC. 30 people on this 737. 1/6th full. What a business.
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Wondering if there’s a broader problem with fast-casual business models. Went to $CAVA last night, and for $20 I got lettuce, cucumbers, and pickles with a tablespoon of tzatziki (the free drink doesn’t make up for this). They were out of some ingredients, and I basically ate a dry salad. I thought $CMG was the only one with this issue. Not going to extrapolate this experience across all restaurants, but I find it incredible that it feels like I haven’t had a pickup order be complete or correct in over a year.
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$BGC - Nice w/w volume increase at FMX.
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$BLKB kicker from the S&P 400 mid cap index. Depending on Mondays move, the stock could be trading at ~1/3 the price they turned down from Clearlake 2 years ago.
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$ROKU - In May 2023 and May 2024, Roku's stock price was around $55 compared to today's stock price of ~$90. This should result in a significant weight increase during the Russell Rebalance in June. Furthermore, a crucial aspect of our ROKU thesis revolves around index inclusion and GAAP profitability. ROKU's market cap is substantial enough for inclusion in the S&P 500; however, they do not meet the GAAP profitability requirement and likely won't for approximately 1.5 to 2 years. It's estimated that $13 trillion is indexed to the S&P 500 - with an estimated weighting of 0.02% in the S&P, $ROKU would experience buying of $2.6 billion of stock, equating to about 12 days of volume - and it is probable that the stock price will be higher by the time they become eligible. We are LONG DYODD.
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Mark your calendar. Q3 26 is when I estimate they are eligible for inclusion.
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Off by a qtr. Not bad. $ROKU continues to execute and still has many opportunities in front of them.
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$BGC - Still many different opportunities to grow business and improve margins. Margin expansion story remains under appreciated.
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$CALY - Pays off the remaining portion of the Term B loan. If consensus is roughly right and CALY should generate ~$300m of FCF in Q2, in April they repurchased $37m of stock, assuming Q2 to date they generated $170m of FCF, this means they repurchased another $46m in May. Expecting them to fully use the $200m buyback during 2026, re-up it when they report Q4.
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Another issue with $WHR - Refinancing 1% notes with 8% notes. Have to imagine $BRK.B took a peek at them?
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Dominick D’Angelo retweeted
does anyone know someone at @x who can help? Please retweet for visibility @MinotLightCap @InsideArbitrage @OSA_Rochester about a month ago, my account @stockspinoffss got hacked and I've been trying for a month to get it back. I have proof in my original email that:
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Potentially very interesting development at $CMP - In talks to contribute its Great Salt Lake land, where they tried harvesting lithium (ultimately shut down due to costs government battles). Would receive royalty payments, and importantly, would fund no CAPEX. The market should not put much weight on this, given the previous issues; however, it is a nice call option. Mgt continues to execute.
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Think $CALY is an obvious sell-side upgrade candidate. Rev/EPS positive revisions stock up potential upside to consensus remains = decent setup for someone to flip from neutral to buy.
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$CALY - Monster quarter, acting on the buyback, keeping the story clean. Once again, Chip leaves out Ogio from his remarks. Increasingly confident that this segment is sold, plow the proceeds into buybacks.
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While today's move is more than I expected, the opportunity (IMO) turns to the SG&A line. SG&A has kept pace with sales growth since 2018 (same business model/segments). Legal/IB fees should be coming out of the cost structure now that sales are behind them. I have to imagine they can find other cost cuts stemming from technology improvements (AI). This is a boring, easy story, where management still has plenty of opportunities in front of them. O - and LIV going away at year's end (hopefully) should drive more engagement.
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Long $MODG - Short $LUCK - Creates a long Callaway golf club position - Continue to think this will be a very interesting spin-off
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Since this tweet $MODG 64%, $LUCK 14.5%
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Updated results - $CALY 191%, $LUCK -13%
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$CMP - After getting kicked from the S&P 600 small-cap index a few years ago, Compass is now borderline eligible to be re-added. They meet all requirements (marginally profitable over the last 4 quarters) but are on the smaller market cap size of current index constituents, which might delay the addition.
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Someone tell $WHR they need to cut the dividend. Continue to think you buy the stock when they do it.
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$LUCK - Good to see them reverse course and begin to close a location. Believe they have now closed 2 centers this year. What was a growth-at-all-costs mindset is now shifting.
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$GLW - Corning is a large position for us, but the one thing that I've constantly said is "it's expensive, but... They will be generating tons of FCF and have excess capacity, so it can all go towards buybacks/dividends. The ONE thing that would concern me is if they announce capacity expansions." Well... maybe context matters, but I am beginning to feel uneasy about what's happening. I genuinely am having a hard time separating the "AI is the next revolution, and we still are early. And EVERY AI company is saying they do not have enough compute." With "These stock moves are so violent, so quick. And if these have any cyclicality to them, we are so far above normalized valuations that downside is significant." In the context of $GLW, where fixed costs and capacity utilization are very important, if they overbuild starting from here... Maybe Corning is the next $1T company.
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$DFIN - Results look ok; however, they continue to change the reporting structure of Software Revenue. ARR growth of 15% is very strong; however, GRR remains relatively weak. I think some will be concerned about the Q2 guide, which, on the easiest comp of the year, is ~ flat y/y.
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