Map and thoughts for the G1 All Aged Stakes. It's a red hot field. I’m having a 2-way play on Beiwacht and Fangirl.
Map Beiwacht, Briasa, Royal Patronage, Angel Capital
Map – Jimmysstar, Magic Time, Kovalica, Headley Grange
Early Speed:
Beiwacht races best bowling along in front and looks likely to get control here. Royal Patronage holds all the answers as to how fast they will go depending on whether they contest the lead, sit outside or take a sit.
Gate 10 looked a negative for Briasa at first glance but a lack of speed drawn inside could see him landing in a great spot 1 back. I have zero confidence in him running a strong 1400m after the way he threw in the towel over the final 100m in this race last year. Moderate tempo expected.
Prediction:
Beiwacht ticks a few boxes dropping back from 1500m a month between runs with a sharp trial in between. His 0.5L 2nd to Joliestar in the G1 Canterbury Stakes 2 starts back is good enough to win this. He is a great chance to get full control jumping from Gate 2 and was a 4.1L winner of the Golden Rose at his only ever go at 1400m. The $7.5 opening quote looks great value.
Fangirl looks way undervalued opening at $9.5. She's being set up for a very different prep to what we are used to resuming in the All Aged before a possible Brisbane Winter Carnival. Her 4.2L 5th in her latest Warwick Farm trial won't jump off the page in the form guide but I thought it showed she is in great order. She settled towards the rear and was under a strong double grip from J Mac the whole way up the straight but absolutely trucked through the line the final 100m.
It would’ve added more confidence to see J Mac stick but I’m sure it was a tough decision for him and it just adds extra value not paying the tax. The risk is whether she has begun to regress as a 7yo but there is enough of a price there to take it on for a mare bringing a 6: 3-1-2 Randwick G1 WFA 1400m record.
Jimmysstar has been luckless this prep and hard to argue against him being opening favourite. I’ve had a pretty good run being against him when he draws low and wide of late so I can easily cop it if he is strong down the outside coming over the top of them.