I believe
$ASTS has a more effective scaling strategy compared to Starlink.
While Starlink has to sell to the consumer, through providers or direct, AST has to sell to providers/MNO. Once adopted, providers are incentivized to integrate the capability into their own Brand and make it available and included for all existing customers.
- Single "sale" for AST = millions of subscribers and immediate scale of revenue.
- Single "sale" for Starlink = 1 customer and small incremental scale of revenue.
The Starlink D2C model calls for rendering MNOs/Providers obsolete by going directly to the consumer. While on the surface it sounds like a great idea, the time to execute this (providing the tech is in place and scaled up to provide competitive service) is long and capital intensive.
AST D2C model calls for immediate scale, an "ON" switch that can be flipped to ALL customers in Provider's base. The only question for Providers becomes the "go to market strategy" - try and sell this as an "add on service" for an extra fee, or incorporate this into their network at no cost/minimal cost to the consumer, basically covering the revenue sharing side of AST and wait for the next pricing cycle update to integrate the cost into the plans.
Starlink's partnership with MNOs/Providers is dead. They all realize now that this is a clear attempt to circumvent them to access their existing customer base. Hence the strong Starlink brand push.